BEIJING: China’s foreign trade for the whole of 2021 is expected to maintain relatively fast growth, although the year-on-year (y-o-y) rate of increase will likely narrow in the fourth quarter due to a high comparison base last year, according to government officials and experts.

       Having shown stronger resilience, the nation’s foreign trade still faces challenges from increased external uncertainties and complexities, they said.

       China’s exports will be well supported by recovering global demand and the country’s complete and well-functioning industrial chains, they said.

       However, as growth of demand from overseas will slow down, along with the resumption of production in South-East Asia, the nation’s fast export growth will gradually return to normal, they added.

       Together with the high comparison base last year, this will result in a decline in exports’ y-o-y growth in the fourth quarter, they said.

       Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s foreign trade in goods in the first three quarters totalled 28.33 trillion yuan (US$4.4 trillion or RM18 trillion), up 22.7% y-o-y.

       Compared with the same period in 2019, China’s total foreign trade expanded 23.4%, while exports increased 24.5% and imports grew 22%.

       However, the y-o-y growth rate of each quarter has been slowing down, although the overall trade volume has been continuously expanding quarter by quarter.

       The import and export value for the first quarter increased 29.7% y-o-y. The value for the second quarter was up 25.2% y-o-y, and for the third quarter, it increased 15.2% y-o-y.

       Imports and exports in September grew by 15.4% from a year earlier at 3.5 percentage points lower than in August.

       “China’s foreign trade has a firm foundation to register more stable and improved performance,” said Li Kuiwen, a spokesman for the customs administration.

       “However, the external conditions are more complicated, as world economic recovery is obstructed by the resurgence of the pandemic, which imposes more uncertainties on China’s foreign trade,” said Li, who is also head of the administration’s statistics and analysis department.

       According to Li, factors such as the recovery of the global economy and foreign trade, and surging commodity prices have pushed up exports during the first three quarters, while the stable growth of the Chinese economy and government measures to facilitate and stabilise foreign trade amid a global drop in exports and imports have also supported the growth of foreign trade.

       Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank, said foreign trade growth started to decline from its high level in the third quarter, and the decline is expected to become more obvious during the fourth quarter.

       “The index for newly signed export orders in September had been on a negative growth track for six successive months,” Wen said. — China Daily/ANN