PETALING JAYA: Duopharma Biotech Bhd’s sales are expected to be boosted once its RM375mil insulin supply contract to the Health Ministry is approved.

       Duopharma and the government are still in the midst of clarifying certain terms of the proposed supply of insugen-insulin recombinant human formulations under the letter of award, according to TA Research.

       “Once approved, Duopharma’s future sales will be boosted by the contract, which will span over three years until December 2024,” the research house said in its latest report.

       The group’s previous insulin tender was worth about RM80mil sales per annum.

       TA Research said Duopharma’s contract to supply pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical products to government hospitals and clinics has been extended for 12 months until end-2022.

       “We are positive on the extension as the contract would represent about 30% to 40% of Duopharma’s revenue for financial year 2022 (FY22),” it added.

       On Duopharma’s latest FY21 results, the research house said the group’s net profit of RM65.7mil was within its forecast.

       However, it was below consensus estimates, accounting for 99.3% and 94.7% of TA Securities and the consensus full-year estimates.

       Year-on-year, Duopharma net profit jumped 12.1% to RM65.7mil as revenue rose 12.2% to RM639.2mil.

       The commendable performance was on the back of high demand from the consumer healthcare and public health sector.

       “We believe that the increase in demand was supported by consumers buying more immune-boosting products and more patients visiting hospitals following the reopening of the economy,” it said.

       After incorporating Duopharma’s FY21 numbers into its model, TA Research said it has reduced the group’s earnings by 3.8% for FY22 and 3.7% for FY23 respectively.

       Following the earnings revision, the research house which has a “buy” call on Duopharma has lowered the stock’s target price (TP) to RM1.93 from RM2 previously.

       Meanwhile, RHB Research, in its latest report, said: “Duopharma recorded sturdy numbers for FY21, with earnings that came in line with our and street expectations.”

       It also believed that the group’s long-term earnings growth prospects remain bright, on the back of its efforts to improve product offerings while venturing into high-value therapies.

       “Therefore, we make no changes to our forecast pending further clarity on the company’s outlook after its analysts briefing,” it noted.

       RHB Research has reiterated a “buy” call on the group with an unchanged TP of RM1.92.

       “We incorporated a 2% environmental, social and governance (ESG) discount to our TP. Based on our proprietary methodology, Duopharma’s ESG score is below the country median,” it added.

       RHB deemed this as unjustified, given the group’s superior margins compared with other listed pharmaceutical players and long-term growth potential arising from its investment into higher-value products such as cancer biologics and stem-cell therapeutics.

       The downside risks include changes in the drug pricing regime, failure of clinical trials for investee companies, higher raw material costs and an unfavourable US dollar to ringgit rate.