The Turkish-Russian relations experienced a very dramatic, positive change in the last ten years, going up to a very high level of trade, tourism and even political relations. The main problem at the moment is Turkey-Syria relations and the recent bringing down of the Syrian plane and that Russia was accused of sending weapons to Syria. Turkish decision to deploy Patriot missile systems was something Russia was not happy with.

       Valdaiclub.com interview with Huseyin Bagci, Professor of International Relations at Middle East Technical University in Ankara.

       How would you generally assess relations between Moscow and Ankara? What are the main problems and breakthroughs?

       First of all, the Turkish-Russian relations experienced a very dramatic, positive change in the last ten years, going up to a very high level of trade, tourism and even political relations. The Turkish prime minister and then Russian prime minister and now president again, Mr. Putin, have a good understanding. They understand each other and never in Turkish-Russian relations did we have such close and intense relations.

       In the recent years, however, there have been some chapters where the Turks and the Russians have different views. Today the most important one is the situation in Syria. On all the other issues, from Armenia-Azerbaijan relations to Black Sea developments, there are more or less common positions. Also, Turkey understands Russia on the European security issue very well.

       The main problem at the moment is Turkey-Syria relations and the recent bringing down of the Syrian plane and that Russia was accused of sending weapons to Syria. This created very mixed feelings among the Turkish public.

       Moreover, the recent Turkish decision to deploy Patriot missile systems in Turkey, which will be provided by Germany and the Netherlands, was something Russia was not happy with. And also the defense shield which has been deployed in the southern part of Turkey – this was another point of conflict with Russia in military terms. However, the Russian understanding in this respect has still been very high.

       But at the moment, the more Turkey is getting involved in the situation in Syria and the more it gets involved in Syrian domestic politics, probably Turkish and Russian positions will further differ because Russia is supporting Syria, the Syrian regime, and Turkey is acting together with the United States of America and the European Union, which pursue the policy of regime change in Syria.

       You were the first to announce the upcoming visit of Vladimir Putin to Ankara after the Valdai Club summit. What in your opinion will be the main themes for discussion between the two parties?

       Besides the Syrian policy, Turkey is a major trade partner of Russia. Also, considering the energy issues, recently, as we know, the South Stream was again dominating the debates and Turkey is one of the biggest customers of the Russian gas, and it will continue to be in the future. But also the energy pipelines make Turkey an important country for the future European energy needs. So in this area, Turkey and Russia will continue to cooperate. And probably there will be no big problems in bilateral trade relations.

       On the global issues, probably once again Syria is an exceptional case. I do not expect that Turkey is trying to go into confrontation with Russia at least for the time being until Mr. Putin arrives in Ankara next week. The biggest issue will be to restore trust between the two parties. Recent developments have broken certain trust, and I think in the future, the differences in the military sphere will increase if they have no solution on Syria. Moreover, Israel will be another issue during the talks given recent contradictions between Ankara and Tel Aviv and Russian support of Israel in certain issues.

       My expectations are that this time the talks will not be as friendly as during Mr Putin’s previous visits to Ankara. This time the psychology, the atmosphere will be tense, and you will see this from the body language of the two political leaders. And I think it is not good for both countries to have tense relations because of third parties. And now Turkish-Russian relations have been good because there are no third party conflicts which deteriorate bilateral relations. But this plane incident and the situation in Syria will increase the rift between Russia and Turkey. And this is not a good sign for Turkish-Russian relations.

       As regards the third party conflicts, the Syrian conflict, is it possible that Russia and Turkey will find a common ground or are their positions so different that there will be no consensus reached?

       I do not presume both sides will reach any consensus because their positions are very clear. Russia is supporting the Bashar Assad regime. Russia is not going to step down and Turkey at the moment will not step down. It will be tense between the two countries. I do not expect any changes of position. Maybe it is a pessimistic view, but it is so.

       How will the incident with the plane affect the negotiations?

       Definitely the negotiations this time will not be as friendly as before, as I said. However, both sides have their arguments, and the Turkish public was not happy with this situation with the plane. The situation is further complicated by the Turkish plane was shot down in June, presumably, by the Syrians.

       However, the issue with the plane flying from Moscow to Damascus is a breakdown of trust. I suppose it is a psychological problem for the two countries and there’s only one hope, I will say, that Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin will overcome these differences. This is, I will say, the only option left. But this time, probably because Putin will be in Turkey, and this is Turkey’s “home play,” Turkey has to be much more careful in what it says and how it is treating Russia. The Turkish side has to apologize, first of all, because in the plane there were no weapons as claimed by the foreign minister. So Russia is right once again to expect an excuse from Turkey that they did wrong. I don’t know if Mr Putin will request this, but it is definitely something Turkey has to do.

       Another point is that Russia remains one of the greatest partners for Turkey. I don’t think that Turkey is going to spoil the relations because of the differences over Syria. It would not be good for Turkish politicians to insist that Russia change its position. They can ask for this, but I am sure Russia will refuse. And this will be a remaining problem, a rift between the two countries.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.