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Rishi Sunak called for a General Election on May 22, 2024. (Image: Getty)
As the General Election nears, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces losing a considerable majority of the Conservative Party's seats - and maybe even his own.
Mr Sunak called for a General Election on May 22, 2024. This was declared a “shrewd move” by Justin Moy, managing director at EHF Mortgages, despite criticism that the Tory party was already losing in popularity.
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Since then, Sunak has experienced a record high of 72 percent of Brits saying they have an unfavourable view of him, and about 70 percent having a negative view of the Tory party as a whole, according to YouGov.
This has fuelled the rise of the Labour Party, who are expected to win a high number of seats and potentially the majority, as a Labour government could be in the cards this very week.
Reform UK has also benefitted from a rise in the polls, although recent controversies may have hindered their efforts.
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The Labour Party led by Keir Starmer has been doing very well in polls. (Image: Getty)
What are the chances of Rishi Sunak losing his seat?
Rishi Sunak holds the Yorkshire seat of Richmond and Northallerton - a constituency that has long been occupied by Conservatives.
However, with Labour doing remarkably well across North Yorkshire in the York and North Yorkshire mayoral election earlier this year, as well as the Conservative party’s freefall in recent polls, there is speculation that the Prime Minister may lose his seat.
In reality, Mr Sunak is still in the lead by 11 points over Labour in the constituency, according to the latest Survation polls, although this is a notable decrease from 47 in the last election. While the area is expected to remain conservative, only time will tell if the Prime Minister will be able to retain his seat.
Penny Mordaunt issues warning if Labour win General Election
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Can Rishi Sunak still be PM if he loses his seat and the Tories keep the majority?
Neither the Conservative nor Labour Party rules explicitly state that a leader who was no longer an MP would have to resign.
The question of whether Mr Sunak could keep serving as PM all depends on whether Conservatives maintain a majority, or if it goes to another party. The majority party is invited to form a government, and the likely PM to be chosen would be the party leader.
However, in the event of the party leader losing his seat, his party may falter in their confidence and is technically able to call on another MP, however unlikely that may be.
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Have party leaders ever lost their seats before?
While no incumbent PM has ever lost their seat in a General Election, the same cannot be said for party leaders.
Arthur Balfour and Herbert Asquith both lost their seats in the 20th century, followed by Arthur Henderson in 1931. Since then, no opposition leader has lost their seat in a general election.
Smaller party leaders have lost their seats 18 times since the 1900s, with Liberal Democrat party leader Jo Swinson most recently failing to be re-elected in East Dunbartonshire in 2019.
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Can the Tories still win a majority?
Currently, Labour has a 20-point lead (40 percent) ahead of the Conservative Party (20 percent) in the polls, and is expected to win a 'supermajority' not seen since Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997.
When asked whether a Tory victory was unlikely, Conservative Secretary of State for Defence Grant Shapps recently said: "I think that's the realistic position, isn't it? I mean, I live in the real world. So, you know, let's not try and pretend black is white."
However, Mr Sunak remains optimistic as he declared yesterday that he was still “fighting very hard and I think people are waking up to the real danger of what a Labour government means."
Even Labour remain cautious. Speaking on Monday, July 1, Labour’s shadow environment secretary Steve Reed claimed Thursday’s vote was still all to play for.
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He told the BBC’s Politics Live: “The election isn’t over, like a football match, until the whistle blows and the whistle blows on the election at 10 o’clock on Thursday the 4th. So until that point we do not know the result and anyone that claims this is over, we know the result, it’s all been won, absolute rubbish.
“Until people go out there and cast their votes, we do not have a decision on the general election and we won’t know until the end of Thursday. The votes haven’t yet been cast.
"I’ve sat around for plenty of general elections hoping Labour’s going to win and seen the Tories sneak through at the end. Just to draw level with the Conservatives, Labour needs the biggest swing that any party’s had since the end of the Second World War.”
Your ultimate guide to the 2024 General Election
Express Politics has compiled a guide to everything you will need to know about the General Election:
The long-term future of the NHS and immigration policy are likely to be key policy battlegrounds. The north-west of England is set to be a pivotal battleground. What happens on election night and when are the crucial results announced? Latest UK polls, odds and expert analysis show Labour is holding a large lead. The battle to replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader is set to dominate the Conservative Party if the polls are correct. Express readers have had their say on the most likeable leader - do you agree?
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