The advance by ISIS*, which resulted in the group’s taking of Palmyra is more of a temporary setback than a strategic loss, according to Dr. Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute. According to him, the campaign is going rather well, but further progress depends on US-Russian cooperation.

       I do not consider the temporary ISIS occupation of Palmyra to be that strategically significant—the Syrian and Russian forces have concentrated on seizing Aleppo, which should shortly occur, and had to redeploy forces from other places to achieve this objective. After they capture Aleppo, they can redeploy and recover Palmyra and its surrounding areas; Palmyra is of symbolic and cultural importance but not a militarily critical strategic point.

       Overall, the campaign against ISIS seems to going well—they have lost more than half of the territory they held in Iraq and Syria a year ago and have suffered major setbacks in Libya. Their representatives can no longer credibly push the narrative that time and momentum is on their side.

       The group appears to have also lost much of their illegal sources of income, including trafficking in people and terrorist financing by state supporters. The government of Turkey seems to have turned decisively against the insurgents, as have some of their previous supporters in the Persian Gulf. Their efforts to destabilize the governments of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Cooperation Council states, seize territory in Afghanistan, or spread into Central Asia remained marginal.

       Of course, their hateful ideology and malignly clever recruiting techniques will still win them some recruits, including self-radicalized followers in the West and Russia. In addition, the Iraqi and Syrian governments will need to pursue more effective policies than in the past to avert alienating their Sunni minorities and hereby triggering a renewed insurgency in a few years.

       A major mystery for coming years is the extent to which President-elect Trump will try to cooperate with the Russian government in Syria or elsewhere. He has publicly affirmed this policy but circumstances may lead him to pursue a different course after he takes office.

       * The ISIS terrorist group is banned in the Russian Federation.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.