Ramzan Kadyrov claims that two districts which are currently part of Ingushetia actually belong to Chechnya, posing a new threat to stability in the Northern Caucasus. It is also an indirect challenge to Moscow, as the dispute is unlikely to be solved on a “bilateral” basis with Ingush leader Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who has dismissed the claim and warned that it will lead to “ethnic strife.” Aware of the extreme danger posed by the territorial dispute, Moscow is keeping a low profile.

       Ramzan Kadyrov claims that two districts which are currently part of Ingushetia – Suzhensky district and part of Malgobek district – actually belong to Chechnya, posing a new threat to stability in the Northern Caucasus. It is also an indirect challenge to Moscow, as the dispute is unlikely to be solved on a “bilateral” basis with Ingush leader Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who has dismissed the claim and warned that it will lead to “ethnic strife.” Kadyrov himself has said he wants to ask the federal authorities to demarcate the administrative border with Ingushetia, and that the relevant documents to prove the territorial claim will be ready by January 1, 2013.

       Aware of the extreme danger posed by the territorial dispute, Moscow is keeping a low profile: the Russian presidential envoy to the Northern Caucasus Federal District Alexander Khloponin has asked both the leaders of Chechnya and Ingushetia to end the dispute over the border, and federal lawmakers have said that two commissions are studying the procedure to define the administrative borders, something which was not done before, as for decades the matter had little relevance to the Soviet authorities and was definitely not a priority in the region for Russia after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

       The Chechen and Ingush autonomous areas, which merged in 1934, were elevated to the status of an Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (Chechen-Ingush ASSR) in 1936 and subsequently disbanded in 1944 when its people were accused of collaboration with the Nazi invaders. The Autonomous Republic was restored in 1957, with slight changes to its borders: it is those differences that lie at the root of today’s conflict, but in Soviet times administrative borders were a kind of minor aspect of territorial set-ups, in many cases were not even shown on maps, as was the case for Chechnya and Ingushetia. Actually, when the Chechen-Ingush Republic split in two in 1992, the problem of the Sunzhensky district was raised, but the issue was quickly settled with the creation of two administrations, one responsible for the villages populated by Chechens and the other for villages populated by the Ingushes. In 2003, before the Chechen referendum on the Constitution, two villages inside Sunzhenksy district were formally handed over to Grozny, with a relevant protocol signed by then-president Ahmad Kadyrov. His son and current head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov, though, does not seem to agree. And to him this is probably more than a fight over a piece of land.

       Several observers and regional analysts insist that the root of the conflict is personal, based on hostility between Kadyrov and Yevkurov. The Chechen leader claims that his Ingush colleague is not active enough in fighting terrorism, while Yevkurov is denying Chechnya any role in security operations in Ingushetia. But the territorial claim indicates the dispute is moving to a higher level, with Kadyrov projecting himself as a regional leader, a perspective surely not appreciated by his Caucasus neighbors and far more dangerous in terms of stability than a mere land dispute.

       Kadyrov’s influence in the region is currently ensured by the support of Moscow. The Chechen leader constantly professes his loyalty to President Vladimir Putin and would never directly challenge the Kremlin. His claim about the borders, though, puts the federal authorities in an awkward position: publicly stopping Kadyrov would mean weakening him, but letting him push forward his claim would open a potential Pandora’s box of regional disputes. A picture is emerging of behind-the-doors negotiations in order to quickly defuse the conflict. In any case, Moscow is all too well aware that losing control over a territorial dispute in the Caucasus is simply unacceptable, now more than ever.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.