Jerusalem: Iran’s weekend attack permanently altered the strategic picture in the Middle East. For 45 years the two countries engaged in a “shadow war" via proxies, covert operations and clandestine missions. Now they are in open conflict. A range of previously unlikely scenarios, from a complete regional meltdown to a new Israeli-Arab alliance, have become possible.
The shadow war’s great benefit to both sides was that it preserved plausible deniability. Anything that provoked a direct conflagration could have wildly unpredictable consequences. But both Iran and Israel became too successful at waging shadow war. Iran sponsors Hamas, which on Oct. 7 invaded 22 Israeli villages and murdered 1,200. This “success" shifted Israel from a defensive to an offensive posture. Where the Israelis had engaged in limited surgical battles with Hamas, they now sought to defeat it completely. The Israel Defense Forces didn’t simply subdue Gaza City and Khan Younis; they destroyed them.
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