OPINION
Sir Keir is fond of looking to the Continent, but what he sees may no longer please the PM (Image: Leon Neal/PA Wire)
Germany, the EU’s largest economy and most populous nation, has just held its federal election, heralding sweeping changes in leadership.
With the somewhat low-key centre-left leader Olaf Scholz ousted after just one term, there are many echoes of what might happen in the UK in the future, something that might make some Labour operatives sweat.
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The preliminary results show the SPD, Germany’s governing centre-left party that had most recently led a rickety coalition, crashing to third place, losing over 9% of the vote and shedding 86 seats to end up with just 120. The mainstream centre-right CDU/CSU has re-emerged as a force in parliament with 208 seats, with its leader Friedrich Merz set to become Germany’s next chancellor.
The right-wing AfD, endorsed by Elon Musk, and long seen as a political pariah from mainstream parties, gained 10 percentage points compared to 2021 and finishing second with 151 seats, a strong result but not enough to avoid being locked out of government.
Like Labour, the SPD in 2021 grabbed power from the once-dominant CDU, which had ruled for 16 years under Angela Merkel.
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The CDU, often compared to the UK’s Conservative Party, looked exhausted after a long stint in government, and with Merkel stepping down as party leader, the 2021 election saw them suffer their worst result ever.
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The mild-mannered Olaf Scholz swept in promising change for Germany. A country quite unfamiliar with left-wing governance was drawn to the SPD’s (translated) slogan, “A social policy for you,” which focused on dignity and respect. Combined with a public desire for change after the CDU’s long rule and a reassuringly drama-free leader in Scholz, the SPD had all the ingredients on paper to build a long-term power base. Sound familiar, UK voters?
Instead, Scholz’s party began a steady and relentless decline in the polls. The SPD was forced to horse-trade daily with its junior coalition partners, frustrating its core voters. The government was also hit by global events, from lingering COVID issues to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Scholz’s cautious, tactical approach meant voters no longer knew what the SPD stood for.
Most fatally, the SPD lost public confidence in its economic management. For years, Germany had enjoyed steady growth, outperforming much of the EU. But now, the country is in recession and suffering from a period of severe economic slowdown, its worst in decades.
When his coalition collapsed after a budget dispute in 2024, it sealed his fate.
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Keir Starmer, a close ally of Olaf Scholz, has a strikingly similar political style and cautious temperament. Labour’s polling has nosedived even faster than the SPD’s, and history suggests that such a collapse is difficult to recover from. Starmer may dream of leading a left-wing revival, but with his government’s approval rating, according to YouGov, hovering at just 14%, even lower than the final days of the last Conservative government, he faces an uphill battle.
At least Starmer commands a large majority, but just eight months into his term, there already swirling rumours of a Cabinet reshuffle to inject energy into a tired-looking government battered by events, own-goals and a stagnating economy.
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In the immediate term, Starmer finds himself increasingly isolated, with fewer allies on the world stage. One by one, left-wing Western leaders are falling. Former US President Joe Biden has left the stage in the US, while Canada’s Justin Trudeau and France’s Emmanuel Macron are both on their way out.
Friedrich Merz, and possibly Canada’s opposition leader and likely next prime minister, Pierre Poilievre, could show the way for mainstream centre-right parties on how to return to power while navigating through a Trump-like hurricane.
One pattern is clear: electoral volatility is on the rise, and short-lived governments are becoming the norm, much to Starmer’s chagrin.