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       * Winter storm watch late tonight through Monday afternoon *

       Today’s daily digit

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       A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

       6/10: Rain tapering by early morning gives way to one more day of notably above-average warmth and a building late-day breeze.

       Express forecast

       Today: Rain tapers early, then cloudy and mild. Highs: Mid- to upper 60s. Tonight: Evening rain shower? Rain changing to snow overnight. Lows: 29-36. Tomorrow: Morning snow likely, cold and blustery. Highs: 33-39.

       Forecast Summary

       Today’s warmth ends as a late-day cold front moves through, tanking temperatures into the 30s late tonight and setting the stage for a period of snow overnight into midday Monday. The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for much of the region.

       The watch, previously in effect only from the District south, was expanded Sunday morning to the north and northwest to include Loudoun, Montgomery and Howard counties, although confidence in meaningful amounts decreases to the north and west (Fauquier County is under a winter weather advisory for the possibility of two to four inches).

       Preliminarily, we think a general range is two to six inches for the D.C. metro area, but it’s too early to call this our final forecast. We will attempt to fine-tune this and map it out later today after another set of model runs.

       Otherwise, it sure feels like January this week, with perhaps another chance of snow late Thursday into Friday.

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       Forecast in detail

       Today (Sunday): Rain moves out early this morning, though a few more showers are possible late afternoon into early evening as a cold front moves through. Skies are mostly cloudy yet again, although they could brighten at times. Temperatures are very mild despite the clouds, in the 50s this morning and afternoon highs aiming for the mid- to upper 60s, boosted by light breezes from the southwest, before turning gusty from the northwest late in the day. Confidence: medium-high.

       This evening: Skies remain mostly cloudy, with a few early evening showers possible. Winds from the northwest could gust near 30 mph as evening temperatures tumble through the 50s into the 40s.

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       Overnight: Temperatures continue to fall, dropping into the 30s after midnight. Models had been split on whether a band of snow approaching from the southwest would move over the D.C. area or miss to the south. The models that had shown a miss to the south have now trended north, which means the chance of measurable snow has increased considerably.

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       Steady rain is likely to develop around midnight to 1 a.m., perhaps mixing with sleet before changing to snow by 4 a.m. or so. The snow may not accumulate at first, especially with the ground having been so warm. But it should start to accumulate before sunrise, first on grass and eventually on pavement, as temperatures dip to around freezing. Confidence: low-medium.

       Follow us on YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for the latest updates. Keep reading for the forecast into next week…

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       Tomorrow (Monday): Snow could continue during the morning commute, although there may not be much from northern Loudoun, northern Montgomery and northern Howard counties to the north, before tapering around noon (give or take an hour or so).

       Look for clearing skies later in the afternoon. Winds from the northwest may gust near 30 mph, making afternoon highs in the mid- to upper 30s feel about 10 degrees colder. Confidence: low-medium.

       Tomorrow night: Skies are mostly clear and northwest breezes slowly calm. Low temperatures by dawn are rather chilly, around 20 to the mid-20s. Confidence: medium-high.

       A look ahead

       Sunshine should be nearly unfettered on Tuesday, but we’re chilly, even for this time of year. High temperatures aim for the upper 30s to low 40s with light winds, though there will be just enough breeze to create a wind chill a few degrees colder. Bundle up! It will feel like January for sure. Increasing clouds Tuesday night, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: medium-high.

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       Clouds may dominate Wednesday, with a snow shower not out of the question before temperatures rise into the mid-40s to near 50. A rain shower can’t be ruled out as the day warms. Southerly breezes should be fairly light but just enough to boost temperatures several degrees warmer than on Tuesday despite the clouds. Confidence: medium.

       We’ve got another chance of snow to track late Thursday into early Friday. Confidence: low.

       Snow potential index

       A daily assessment of the potential for at least one inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

       6/10 (↑): The chance of measurable snow late Sunday night into the first half of Monday has increased, with some accumulation now likely. [Updated from '5′ when tweeted last night]

       Read more about Capital Weather Gang’s confidence rating.