FORT COLLINS, Colo.: Chicago grain and oilseed futures have had a rowdy start to March as war has erupted between two key exporters.

       But despite the market volatility, investors were significantly more timid than expected when it comes to big position moves, the second week in a row for such a theme.

       Commodity funds had been pegged as buyers of more than 100,000 combined CBOT corn and wheat futures in the week ended March 1, but wheat buying was relatively light, and the trade had the completely wrong read on corn.

       Investors’ outright short positions across Chicago grains and oilseeds are historically light, especially in corn and the soy complex. However, commercial end users’ outright shorts are sizable, leaving them exposed during price surges as occurred last week.

       Global commodity markets have been rocked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since it began full-on late last month. The two countries account for 29% of world wheat exports and nearly 80% of sunflower oil. Ukraine ships 16% of the world’s corn, and exports out of the region are effectively cut off.

       Chicago wheat futures within the last several sessions have reached prices seen only a handful of times, all in 2008. May wheat WK2 settled up the daily 50 cent-per-bushel limit on March 1, capping off a 15% gain for the week.

       But money managers axed only 11,000 futures and options contracts from their CBOT wheat net short in the week ended March 1, a fraction of expectations, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Read full story

       That was evenly split between new longs and short covering, and the resulting net short of 7,036 contracts is funds’ least bearish since December.

       CBOT May wheat settled up the expanded 75-cent limit in each of the last three sessions, a staggering 23% gain, finishing Friday at $12.09 per bushel. December futures WZ2 ended 5% higher between Wednesday and Friday, ending at $9.80 and at an unprecedented discount to nearby contracts.

       Commercial gross shorts in CBOT wheat as of March 1 were a bit above the recent average for the date at 191,381 contracts. That includes a weekly surge of nearly 20,000 contracts, the most since November, which is equivalent to 100 million bushels.

       CORN AND SOY

       Commercial end users’ gross shorts in CBOT corn and soybeans are well above normal but off the year-ago highs. They have maintained corn shorts in recent weeks around 1.18 million contracts, though they shed 8% of soybean shorts in the last two weeks, putting it near 570,000 contracts on March 1.

       Most-active corn futures Cv1 jumped almost 8% in the week ended March 1, prompting expectations for large fund buying, but money managers reduced their net long to 349,222 futures and options contracts from 354,436 a week earlier. Both longs and shorts were eliminated, and the week featured funds’ biggest short covering in corn since October.

       Soybean futures Sv1 climbed 3.4% through March 1, and money managers trimmed their net long by about 4,600 to 175,721 futures and options contracts, also against the prediction for buying. Few outright soy shorts remain to be covered as that number dropped below 10,000 last week.

       The loss of corn exports out of Ukraine and concerns for its upcoming harvest, as well as uncertainties over U.S. plantings of both corn and soybeans, were the focus for corn and bean traders last week. Export demand for U.S. soybeans has been very strong in light of Brazil’s extreme crop shortfalls.

       May corn CK2 rose nearly 4% in the last three sessions though the range covered more than 70 cents per bushel, settling Friday at $7.54-1/4 after reaching the highest levels since 2012. May beans SK2 fell 1.7% during the period with a range of nearly 65 cents, ending Friday at $16.60-1/2.- Reuters