After the past two winters with well-below-average snowfall in Washington, the current one is making up for lost time. The District on Sunday added 2.6 inches to its snowfall tally, which has now eclipsed a foot — all from this month.
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Now forecasters are eyeing the possibility of more snow this weekend, although there is considerable uncertainty about whether a storm will materialize.
Sunday’s snowstorm in Washington was already the third this month.
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How much snow fell Sunday
In the immediate D.C. area, 2 to 3 inches were most common before precipitation changed to sleet and freezing rain and ultimately rain.
Some areas east of Interstate 95 saw only an inch or two, while there was just a coating in Southern Maryland. Toward Interstate 81, most spots received about 4 to 8 inches.
How was the forecast?
Our forecast for this event was pretty close to on the money. Observed snowfall amounts largely matched what was predicted. The snow did start on the early side of our projected window but changed to sleet and freezing rain right on schedule — between 5 and 7 p.m. from south to north. And then temperatures rose above freezing and precipitation changed to rain as we anticipated.
The lone surprise was the burst of wind that accompanied the back edge of downpours that transited the region between about 11 p.m. and midnight. Dulles Airport gusted to nearly 60 mph, and there were reports of power outages in parts of Northern Virginia and central Maryland.
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A rare winter severe thunderstorm warning was even issued for areas east of Interstate 95 toward Annapolis just hours after it had snowed. The warning was issued because of high winds; the downpours did not contain thunder or lightning.
As to what caused the sudden burst of damaging wind, there were curious scalloped-shaped indentations along the back edge of the heavy rain-producing cloud deck. (See image below.) We also know, from Doppler radar, there were 70-plus-mph winds from the southeast just 1,000 feet above the ground, along the back edge of the rain shield.
Very dry air may have intruded into that cloud deck at spots and evaporated some of the heavy rain. The cooling effect would have caused air to sink rapidly in small pockets, bringing some of that high-momentum air down to the surface as strong gusts.
Could it really snow again this weekend?
The models have been advertising the potential for another storm system to possibly track toward our area during the weekend. They have alternated between tracking it far enough north to give us snow and keeping it suppressed to our south.
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The European modeling system Monday morning showed a number of projections that would offer some snow but also had some that showed dry weather.
On Sunday, one of the model runs from the American modeling system showed a snowstorm, then the next took it away. Monday morning’s run of the model has the storm just missing us to the southeast, but it’s close.
The bottom line is there is likely to be a storm passing to our south over the weekend. Whether it tracks far enough north to affect us will depend on how it interacts with the jet stream.
The forecast should come into better focus in the coming days. In general, we’d add, the longer this cold pattern hangs around, the more chances for snow we’ll have. The cold pattern shows little sign of relenting through the end of the month, at least.
It’s becoming a historically snowy January
The 12.1 inches of snow this January is more than double the average of 4.9 inches. The season-to-date total is now more than 8 inches ahead of normal, and we need just 1.6 inches the rest of the winter to reach seasonal average of 13.7 inches.
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With two weeks left, this January is already the 19th-snowiest in records dating to 1872. The amount in the first 16 days of the month is fourth most on record.
We’ve now had three days with at least 2.6 inches this January. Only four other Januarys on record have seen this much.
The January snowfall this year is the most since 2016, when the Snowzilla blizzard dumped 17.8 inches.
But for this year to produce the snowiest January on record, it has some work left to do. January 1922 produced 31.5 inches of snow, mostly from the infamous Knickerbocker Storm, which unloaded 28 inches on its own.
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