Radar courtesy MyRadar | ？ OpenStreetMap contributors
* Winter weather advisory today from 6 a.m. to 1 p.m. | School delays/closings *
6:20 a.m. — Change from rain to snow may not occur until between 8 and 10 a.m. in immediate area, meaning a lower accumulation potential
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Overnight computer models have somewhat delayed their predictions for the timing of the change from rain to snow this morning. On Wednesday, it look like that the transition to snow might occur between 6 and 8 a.m but it now looks like it could be delayed until between 8 and 10 a.m. The slower changeover reduces accumulation potential somewhat.
A burst of snow is still possible after the changeover but, at this point, we’d lean toward snowfall totals being closer to the lower end of the projections displayed in the map below (or around a coating to an inch, with some locally higher amounts). As a result, some areas (especially from the District south) may not see a lot of accumlation, especially on roads. However, we’d still urge caution as snow could still bring reduced visibility for a time and some slick spots, especially in our colder areas.
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Temperatures at 6 a.m. are still near 40 inside the Beltway and to the east but have cooled into the upper 30s to the west and north. We’ll need to see temperatures drop toward the mid-30s before the switch to snow commences. That could start to happen in some of our far western areas between Interstate 15 and 81 over the next hour.or so.
Our next update will be around 7:15 a.m.
Original forecast from 5 a.m.
Today’s daily digit
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
5/10: After Wednesday’s warmth, many are deflated, but leaving it higher rated since snow lovers are elated.
Express forecast
Today: Rain changing to snow in the morning, temperatures falling into the 30s. Tonight: Partial clearing, very cold. Lows: 12-18 Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and cold. Highs: 24-28
Forecast in detail
Cold air comes muscling in today, changing our overnight rain to snow and then leaving us to shiver all weekend. That cold air keeps most moisture surging up from the south confined to southern Delmarva and southeastern Virginia on Friday night into Saturday morning, making the chance of seeing snowflakes locally slim.
Today (Thursday): Rain transitions to snow from northwest to southeast between about sunrise and 9 a.m. The main snow burst is likely to be between about 8 and 11 a.m. The snow should then gradually taper off by noon, but some flurries could linger into the early afternoon, mainly south of town. Accumulations of an inch or two are possible for most of the immediate metro area, although some areas may manage only a coating, especially south of town. Temperatures fall from the upper 30s to the low 30s during the day thanks to gusty north winds. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Clouds diminish in the evening, and north winds persist but slowly ease. Overnight lows plummet into the teens with wind chills in the single digits. Confidence: Medium-High
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Tomorrow (Friday): Clouds are back on the increase in the morning, with mostly cloudy conditions much of the day. North winds are not that strong but accentuate the cold. Temperatures climb no higher than the mid- to upper 20s. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Despite mostly cloudy skies, temperatures still drop back into the low to mid-teens. A few snowflakes are possible, but anything significant should be confined well to our southeast. Winds are thankfully light from the north. Confidence: Medium-High
A look ahead
Skies gradually clear Saturday, but the Arctic air is still in place, and highs are capped in the upper 20s to low 30s. Overnight lows fall to the mid- to upper teens under partly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium-High
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Sunday is not quite as cold, with highs in the mid- to upper 30s. Skies are partly sunny, and winds are light, which helps the comfort factor. Overnight lows dip to the mid- to upper teens (lower 20s downtown). Confidence: Medium
Mainly sunny skies on Monday still struggle to warm the area. Highs are likely to remain in the mid- to upper 30s. Confidence: Medium
Snow potential index
A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.
5/10 (→): We better cash in with the snow this morning because the weekend chances are fading fast.