WASHINGTON – The occasional stumble, the stoop, the dramatic lowered voice that trails into a hoarse whisper. At 81, President Joe Biden is getting on in years. And showing it.
It is not just Mr Biden’s age – he is the oldest serving president in American history – that is giving the Democratic establishment pause.
It is the combination of two feared variables: his unpopularity and the perceived state of the economy.
With just weeks to go before the start of the primaries, the party’s embrace of Mr Biden is less than full-throated.
Much to the White House’s deepening frustration, only 23 per cent of 1,500 voters in a recent Wall Street Journal survey said Mr Biden’s policies have helped them personally, despite strong gross domestic product growth, record-low unemployment, rising real wages and falling inflation.
On nearly every issue – the economy, inflation, crime, border security and Israel-Hamas – voters said they trust his rival and former president Donald Trump to do a better job. Mr Biden scores better only on abortion and “tone in politics”.
Like a number of other opinion polls over the past few months, this one also finds Trump, 77, beating Mr Biden in a hypothetical match.
The question refuses to go away: Why is Mr Biden choosing to stay in the fray?
In a podcast on Dec 13, former president Barack Obama surrogate David Axelrod said Mr Biden’s poor ratings were “very, very dark” news for his re-election campaign.
A month ago, Mr Axelrod, who was the chief strategist of Mr Obama’s campaigns, incurred the President’s wrath with a tweet asking Mr Biden to consider whether his decision to run again was in “his best interest or the country’s”.
“They have got a real problem if they are counting on Trump to win it for them,” Mr Axelrod told New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd. “I remember Hillary doing that, too,” he said, referring to Mrs Hillary Clinton’s defeat to Trump in the 2016 election.
According to Mr Biden, his quest for a second term is motivated in part by Trump’s decision to run for president again. “If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running,” he said at a fund-raiser in Boston in December. “We cannot let him win.”
Trump leads the Republican field, although he has been impeached twice and is facing criminal charges connected to efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
Another party stalwart, Mr James Carville, who helped then Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton get elected in 1992, has said Mr Biden’s poor poll numbers need to be discussed.
“The idea that this should not be aired out and should be discussed in hushed tones is ludicrous,” Mr Carville said.
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Mr Biden himself is undeterred. Analysts said his nomination is as good as sealed.
“If Biden runs for re-election, and there is no evidence that he does not plan to do so, it is very unlikely that he will draw a significant opponent in the primary,” said Mr John Judis, the co-author of a new book, Where Have All The Democrats Gone: The Soul Of The Party In The Age Of Extremes.
“It will soon be too late for another candidate even to file for the primaries,” Mr Judis said. “The only circumstance in which I could imagine Biden deciding not to run is if he were to become sick or hospitalised.”
The deadlines to get on the primary ballot in critical states such as Nevada, South Carolina and Georgia have already passed. The party’s first nominating contest is in New Hampshire on Jan 23.
There was talk in early 2022 that someone should perhaps replace Mr Biden, said Mr John Fortier, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. But that ended after the Democratic Party performed well in the mid-term congressional elections.
“Inflation had just shot up. (Petrol) prices were high. But over the summer and after the better-than-expected midterm results, Biden seemed strong within his party. Potential challengers such as (California Governor) Gavin Newsom stood down,” Mr Fortier said.
“It is highly unlikely Biden will be replaced against his will. It is too late for a serious challenger to even get in the race, never mind win a significant share of delegates. But in an emergency, there is, of course, another way for Democrats to pick a new nominee.”
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If Mr Biden does withdraw, the Democratic National Committee would have to scramble to allow new candidates to enter the race, said Mr Judis.
“Vice-President Kamala Harris would have a built-in advantage, but I would imagine that the governors of California, Illinois and maybe Michigan would consider running,” he said, referring to large and politically powerful states.
“As things stand, however, Biden will be the nominee, regardless of what television pundits prefer.”
A party insider, who did not want to be named, concurred. “The thing in common among some of our Dem talking heads is that they love to grouse and have a habit of demanding, always demanding more,” she said.
“We are one year away from the election. And it is a mistake to write Joe Biden off,” the party insider said, pointing to his win after a shaky start in the 2020 primaries and an early loss to Senator Bernie Sanders.
She also faulted the media for being overly critical of the President and unduly focused on his age. “Incomprehensibly, they do not focus on Trump’s age despite the fact that there is only a three-year difference between them,” she said.
“Steady as it goes – we are full tilt on his re-election!”
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