An active weather pattern will bring daily chances of strong to severe thunderstorms in the central and eastern United States, with chances of strong winds, hail and even a few tornadoes accompanying the heftier storm cells. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has highlighted daily severe weather chances in its forecasts, and there are signs the busy weather could continue next week.
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Storms are predicted to be most numerous on Wednesday, when more than 90 million people from New Mexico to New Jersey face an elevated risk of severe weather, according to the Storm Prediction Center. On Thursday, the storm risk will be somewhat more confined, affecting about 20 million people from the Gulf Coast to the Central Plains.
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Tuesday featured widespread instances of severe weather across much of the Central and High Plains, including in far-eastern Wyoming, where a tornado was reported near Lusk. Baseball-size hail was reported in Hazard, Neb., just over 40 miles west-northwest of Grand Island, with hail of similar size noted from a separate storm in Two Buttes in southeast Colorado. A spattering of supercell, or rotating, thunderstorms dropped significant hail; the Weather Service received three dozen reports of ice chunks above two inches in diameter.
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By evening, some of the storms south of Interstate 80 in Nebraska had merged into a bowing squall line with damaging winds. They drifted to Kansas City, Mo. Other supercells continued to rage in southwest Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles; a gust of 92 mph was clocked at Elkhart along the Kansas-Oklahoma border, with an 81 mph gust in nearby Guymon, Okla.
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Severe storms continued into the early morning hours Wednesday, producing an 81 mph wind gust in Motley County, Tex., shortly after sunrise. Heavy storms also brought over five inches of rain and flooding around Birmingham, Ala.
Storm risk Wednesday
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic:
Areas affected: Eastern Illinois, much of southern and central Indiana, northern Kentucky, southern Ohio and western Virginia are in a Level 2 out of 5 risk zone for severe storms. This includes Louisville; Indianapolis; Columbus, Ohio; and Charleston, W.Va. A broader Level 1 out of 5 risk stretches all the way to D.C., Philadelphia, Baltimore and Richmond.
7:13am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Slight Risk: Southern Great Plains to the Deep South and the Ohio Valley https://t.co/GtEvHQ3UxE pic.twitter.com/8eheMSuVaZ
— NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) June 8, 2022
Synopsis: Scattered thunderstorms ongoing over southern Illinois and parts of the Corn Belt early Wednesday morning will increase in coverage and intensity as they shuffle east, perhaps organizing into a line. That band of storms will march east through the evening, reaching the Mid-Atlantic during the overnight. A few additional thunderstorms will develop ahead of the line. Hazards: Damaging winds to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters with the most significant storms. Frequent lightning, as well, particularly if lines of storms form. A couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out with cells ahead of the mainline that acquire supercell characteristics and remain isolated from neighbors.
Mid-South, Ozarks and Deep South
Areas affected: A Level 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather covers areas near and south of Interstate 40 between the Texas Panhandle south of Amarillo and parts of Mississippi and Alabama. Between lies most of southern Oklahoma down to the Red River and through the Ozark Plateau of Arkansas. That includes Oklahoma City; Wichita Falls, Tex.; Little Rock; Memphis; Jackson, Miss.; and Birmingham. A Level 1 out of 5 risk stretches from eastern New Mexico and West Texas to the Eastern Seaboard. Synopsis: Storms from Tuesday night will redevelop and intensify with daytime heating, and further activity is possible on the eastern fringe of the mainline. Hazards: Damaging winds to 70 mph in the strongest storms, along with half-dollar-size hail, particularly during the first half of the day. Storm intensity will wane acutely as storms drift east of the Mississippi River, but 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail remain possible.
Thursday
Plains and Gulf Coast
Areas affected: A Level 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather covers much of the Central Plains and High Plains, including the northern Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, northeast New Mexico, Colorado east of the Palmer Divide, and much of Kansas and south-central Nebraska. The northern half of Oklahoma is encompassed in the risk area, too. That translates to cities including Tulsa, Wichita, Garden City and Scott City, Kans.; McCook and Kearney, Neb.; and Dumas, Tex. A Level 1 out of 5 risk surrounds the Level 2 risk area and covers Lincoln, Neb., and Oklahoma City and wraps down to the Gulf Coast and blankets New Orleans; Mobile, Ala., and Tallahassee.
12:58am CDT #SPC Day2 Outlook Slight Risk: across portions of the central and southern Plains Thursday afternoon into early Friday https://t.co/rEAejNpVr0 pic.twitter.com/B2lazPGe6C
— NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) June 8, 2022
Synopsis: A weak cold front will touch off some thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast. Instability, or fuel for storms, will be plentiful, but wind dynamics will be meager. Still, a few storms could contain strong downdraft winds. A more substantial severe weather threat will be present over the Plains, where supercells in western areas will transition into an MCS, or mesoscale convective system — in essence, a sprawling curved squall line with strong winds. Hazards: Along the Gulf Coast, storms could contain wind gusts to around 50 mph and torrential rain. Over the Plains, initial supercells could produce hail to the size of chicken eggs and wind gusts to 75 mph, along with an isolated brief tornado, before a more widespread wind risk with the nascent MCS.
Friday
Mid-South and Deep South
Areas affected: A Level 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather covers parts of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi, including the cities of Jackson, Meridian, Pine Bluff and Vicksburg in Mississippi and areas southeast of Little Rock. A marginal risk extends all the way to Mobile and the Mississippi Delta along the Gulf Coast. Synopsis: One of two things is likely to happen. Either the dying MCS from Thursday night will strengthen again in the face of daytime heating or a leftover swirl of low pressure from the line’s northern side, known as a mesoscale convective vortex, could touch off new storms. Hazards: Damaging winds to 65 mph, frequent lightning, downpours and perhaps small hail of pea or penny size.
2:22am CDT #SPC Day3 Outlook Slight Risk: across parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi https://t.co/6oEffQUiK1 pic.twitter.com/L5OgtaRgAK
— NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) June 8, 2022
Looking ahead
An approaching trough, or dip in the jet stream within which is nestled a lobe of high-altitude cold air, low pressure and spin, will swing through the northern Intermountain West early next week. That could touch off severe thunderstorms in the northern Rockies or Dakotas, but confidence is low.