PETALING JAYA: Although the government is in a tight fiscal position, higher collection of commodity-related revenues and new sources of income would enable it to fund an expansionary budget to support recovery efforts next year.

       Notably, the rise in crude oil prices to above US$84 (RM348.84) per barrel, the highest level since October 2018, augurs well for government coffers. In addition, crude palm oil prices have been on a positive trajectory since early this year.

       “Despite the global economic challenges, Malaysia’s revenue shortfall is expected to be offset by higher collection of commodity-related revenues with the global demand resurgence for crude oil and palm oil.

       “With Malaysia being an open export-oriented economy, the global recovery of key markets can drive demand resurgence for its commodities and export manufactures,” Bernard Yap, partner and Malaysia private client services leader at Ernst & Young Tax Consultants Sdn Bhd, told StarBiz.

       In an earlier report, TA Research estimated that every US$1 (RM4.15) increase in oil prices would add RM300mil to the government’s coffers – excluding dividends from Petronas and other oil tax-related revenues.

       Note that current prices of crude oil have somewhat doubled from US$42 (RM174.42) per barrel when Budget 2021 was drawn up.

       Commodities aside, Yap pointed out that Malaysia’s economy, which is highly driven by the electrical and electronics (E&E) sector, including semiconductors, is also benefiting from higher prices with the rising global semiconductor shortage.

       E&E products made up about 35.8% of total exports in August 2021, according to the Statistics Department. During the month, exports of E&E products increased by RM2.2bil or 6.8% year-on-year to RM34.3bil.

       With some observers projecting the shortage to last for years, prices of E&E products should remain supported in the coming year.

       “Fiscal operations may also be supported through new and existing funding sources. New sources may include sustainability sukuk issuance and a proposed broader tax base.

       “(This would be accompanied by) spending rationalisation and the prioritising of aid packages to strengthen the health and economic sectors,” Yap added.

       He expects the government to delay the implementation of several programmes and projects, restrict non-critical expenditure and optimise operations under the new norm to improve spending efficiency.

       Given the continued fiscal spending required to support the gradual reopening of the Malaysian economy, the expected expansionary nature of Budget 2022 may see the deficit target increase to between 6.5% and 7% to gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, higher than the previous target of 5.4% to GDP.

       But with Malaysia’s strong and diverse economic base of export-driven commodities and manufactures, Yap said economic recovery has been picking up good momentum since August 2021 and the economy is projected to grow between 5% and 6% in 2022 – a steady return to the pre-pandemic annual GDP growth trend.

       “Underpinning Budget 2022 is the expectation that Malaysia’s economic situation will recover from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic over the course of next year.

       “Budget 2022’s focus is on continuing to protect and restore the lives and livelihoods of the rakyat and businesses, rebuild national resilience and catalyse post-pandemic reforms.

       “We expect Malaysia’s income sources to be derived from the private sector, both in terms of investment and consumption, as articulated in the 12th Malaysia Plan,” he said.

       Nonetheless, fiscal incentives will be needed to help attract investments into Malaysia.

       Budget 2022 will be tabled on Friday.