Dots show Chinese
ships’ movements
Shanghai
Pacific Ocean
South China Sea
East China Sea
Japan
South
Korea
Taiwan
Philippines
Philippines
Brunei
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Vietnam
Indonesia
Indonesia
China
China
Philippines exclusive economic zone
Mischief Reef
occupied by China
Second Thomas Shoal
occupied by the Philippines
Mischief Reef
occupied by China
Second Thomas Shoal
occupied by the Philippines
Union Bank
occupied by China
and Vietnam
Subi Reef
occupied by China
Palawan
Spratly Islands
Spratly Islands
Chinese militia
Philippine
coast guard
Chinese coast guard
Fleets of Force How China strong-armed its way into dominating the South China Sea.
By Agnes Chang and Hannah Beech Nov. 16, 2023
Beijing says many of these boats are just fishing. But they bristle with machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and high-velocity water cannons. They’re here for intimidation. ● Chinese militia and coast guard vessels, Sept.–Oct. 2023
This fleet, built largely with government money, helps China dominate one of the most crucial and disputed waterways in the world: the South China Sea. China’s territorial claim
Other countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones
Working in tandem with an aggressive coast guard, these militarized fishing boats assert Beijing’s presence more than 1,000 miles from the Chinese mainland. ● Positions of Chinese vessels, May–Oct. 2023
The boats patrol the tiny, disputed Spratly islets. Their reinforced steel hulls make it easy to ram smaller boats. They swarm other countries’ outposts and squat on shoals within sight of foreign coastlines. ● Chinese vessels, Sept.–Oct. 2023
In confrontations with China’s militarized fleet, like this one on Oct. 22, the Philippines’ smaller boats don’t stand a chance. China’s muscle is crucial to its de facto control over the South China Sea.
These fishing boats, most of which don’t actually fish, make up a maritime militia that is upending the rules of the sea. By providing backup to the China Coast Guard and maintaining a constant presence in remote waters—often parking on contested reefs for weeks at a time—they amplify China’s ambitions in the South China Sea.
China’s maritime militia is made up of civilians who on paper hold jobs as commercial fishermen. The blurring of lines is deliberate: China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has stressed the need for civilian-military unity to promote national security.
Such gray zone tactics help China quietly gain command over disputed areas. Beijing has used this method across its vast frontier, from the mountainous borders with South Asia to rocks in the East China Sea. And once China incrementally takes over, a new reality reigns.
That reality is literally inscribed. In May, Chinese coast guard and militia vessels operating in and near Vietnamese waters sailed routes that appeared to trace the first Chinese character in the word “China.” And that word has also been carved on the hills near China’s land borders.
China has already built military bases on multiple Spratly reefs. In the air over the South China Sea, Chinese fighter jets are confronting American military planes with greater frequency. At sea, Chinese vessels have, thus far, avoided a deadly confrontation. But an incident in a remote part of the South China Sea could well spark an international crisis.
Military structures and other facilities are seen on the artificial island built by China on Subi Reef in the Spratlys.
Ezra Acayan/Getty Images
China’s militarization of the South China Sea has sharply raised tensions with the United States. While the U.S. does not claim any territory in the waterway, it is treaty-bound to defend the Philippines, the nation most at odds with China. And should there be a conflict over Taiwan, the presence of Chinese military bases and vessels nearby in the South China Sea could impede the ability of the U.S. and its allies to maneuver.
“With the Chinese in this part of the South China Sea, it’s like fighting water,” said Gregory B. Poling, the director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or C.S.I.S. “You push them out and then they just come right back.”
An intimidation campaign Off the coast of the Philippines, a tiny outpost of Philippine marines has borne the brunt of China’s militarization of the South China Sea. Every couple of weeks, Philippine vessels try to resupply the marines stationed at Second Thomas Shoal. And every couple of weeks, the Chinese intervene to assert what they call their “indisputable sovereignty” over the reef.
On Oct. 22, this intimidation was heightened when a large Chinese coast guard ship bumped into a smaller Philippine resupply boat, forcing it to abandon its mission.
1. The approach 3 a.m. local time
Chinese coast guard vessels
Chinese militia boats
Philippine coast guard vessels
Chinese coast guard vessels
Chinese militia boats
Philippine coast guard vessels
Chinese vessels encircled
Philippine ones as they
neared the shoal.
Chinese vessels continued to
stay dangerously close to the
Philippine resupply mission.
Philippine ships approached Second Thomas Shoal.
SECOND
THOMAS
SHOAL
SECOND
THOMAS
SHOAL
SECOND
THOMAS
SHOAL
A Chinese coast guard
vessel bumped a
Philippine resupply boat.
Chinese boats lined up at the entrance to the shoal.
One Chinese militia boat
grazed a Philippine vessel.
3 miles
Chinese vessels encircled
Philippine ones as they
neared the shoal.
Chinese vessels continued to
stay dangerously close to the
Philippine resupply mission.
Philippine ships
approached.
Chinese boats lined
up at the entrance
to the shoal.
A Chinese coast guard
vessel bumped a
Philippine resupply boat.
One Chinese militia boat
grazed a Philippine vessel.
3 miles
2. The encirclement 6 a.m. local time
Chinese vessels encircled
Philippine ones as they
neared the shoal.
Chinese vessels continued to
stay dangerously close to the
Philippine resupply mission.
Philippine ships approached Second Thomas Shoal.
SECOND
THOMAS
SHOAL
SECOND
THOMAS
SHOAL
SECOND
THOMAS
SHOAL
A Chinese coast guard
vessel bumped a
Philippine resupply boat.
Chinese boats lined up at the entrance to the shoal.
One Chinese militia boat
grazed a Philippine vessel.
3 miles
Chinese vessels encircled
Philippine ones as they
neared the shoal.
Chinese vessels continued to
stay dangerously close to the
Philippine resupply mission.
Philippine ships
approached.
Chinese boats lined
up at the entrance
to the shoal.
A Chinese coast guard
vessel bumped a
Philippine resupply boat.
One Chinese militia boat
grazed a Philippine vessel.
3 miles
3. The standoff 9 a.m. local time
Chinese vessels encircled
Philippine ones as they
neared the shoal.
Chinese vessels continued to
stay dangerously close to the
Philippine resupply mission.
Philippine ships approached Second Thomas Shoal.
SECOND
THOMAS
SHOAL
SECOND
THOMAS
SHOAL
SECOND
THOMAS
SHOAL
A Chinese coast guard
vessel bumped a
Philippine resupply boat.
Chinese boats lined up at the entrance to the shoal.
One Chinese militia boat
grazed a Philippine vessel.
3 miles
Chinese vessels encircled
Philippine ones as they
neared the shoal.
Chinese vessels continued to
stay dangerously close to the
Philippine resupply mission.
Philippine ships
approached.
Chinese boats lined
up at the entrance
to the shoal.
A Chinese coast guard
vessel bumped a
Philippine resupply boat.
One Chinese militia boat
grazed a Philippine vessel.
3 miles
Note: Trails show positions over the prior four hours. Movement data is not available for all the ships at the scene.
This wasn’t the first dangerous encounter this year. In August, a Chinese coast guard ship directed a water cannon at a Philippine resupply vessel. In February, the Philippine coast guard reported that sailors were temporarily blinded by a “military-grade laser” aimed by its Chinese counterpart.
Sept. 8, 2023
Chinese
coast guard
Chinese
coast guard
Chinese
militia
Philippine
coast guard
Chinese
militia
Philippine
coast guard
Chinese
coastguard
Chinese
coast guard
Chinese
coast guard
Chinese
militia
Philippine
coast guard
Chinese
militia
Philippine
coast guard
Chinese
coast guard
Chinese
coast guard
Chinese
militia
Chinese
coast guard
Chinese
militia
Philippine
coast guard
Source: Philippine Coast Guard
Civilians are also caught in the crosshairs. In 2019, a Filipino fishing boat was rammed by a Chinese militia trawler, leaving the fishermen floating in the wreckage for hours before a passing vessel saved them. From Vietnam and Indonesia to the Philippines, fishermen say they can no longer access traditional fishing grounds because of what is in effect a Chinese blockade.
Over the years, Chinese aggression has compelled Southeast Asian nations to suspend oil exploration in the South China Sea, although some efforts have started up again.
A constant, aggressive presence To project Beijing’s power, militia trawlers have anchored for weeks near China’s island military bases and on reefs that are within other nations’ waters. Rafted side by side, sometimes by the dozens, the boats often lack nets or crews big enough to fish.
Aug. 5, 2023
1 boat
South China Sea
2 boats
2 boats
11 boats anchored together
Union Banks,
Spratly Islands
4 boats
500 feet
1 boat
South China Sea
2 boats
2 boats
11 boats anchored together
Union Banks,
Spratly Islands
4 boats
500 feet
South China Sea
1 boat
2 boats
2 boats
11 boats
anchored
together
Union Banks,
Spratly Islands
4 boats
500 feet
Sept. 9, 2023
Chinese facilities
9 boats
8 boats
2 boats
14 boats anchored together
6 boats
Mischief Reef,
Spratly Islands
5 boats
5 boats
13 boats
500 feet
Chinese facilities
9 boats
8 boats
2 boats
14 boats anchored together
6 boats
Mischief Reef,
Spratly Islands
5 boats
5 boats
13 boats
500 feet
Mischief Reef,
Spratly Islands
Chinese facilities
8 boats
2 boats
14 boats anchored together
5 boats
5 boats
13 boats
500 feet
Source: Satellite images by Planet Labs and Maxar Technologies
China’s maritime militia, by numbers and by reach, has no challenger in the South China Sea. In fact, the fleet is far bigger than what’s needed to fish these waters, according to an analysis by C.S.I.S.
On any given day, satellites identify hundreds of Chinese militia boats in the South China Sea and at nearby ports.
Hundreds of militia boats can be observed daily Daily count of boats seen from satellite at key locations
400
Most militia boats return to port over the Chinese holidays.
300
At sea
200
At port
100
0
Oct.
Jan.
April
July
2021
2022
At sea
At port
Most militia boats
return to port over the
Chinese holidays.
400
300
200
100
0
Oct.
Jan.
April
July
2021
2022
Source: C.S.I.S. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
Note: Data represents the number of militia vessels seen in daily satellite imagery from Sept. 2021 through Aug. 2022 for nine hotspots in the South China Sea and six ports on China's southern coast.
Funding from the Chinese government keeps the militia afloat.
Dozens of Chinese militia boats are constructed by state-owned companies. These vessels are designed for confrontation, with steel hulls, long silhouettes and an array of weaponry. Smaller, wooden fishing boats find themselves overwhelmed.
A reinforced Chinese militia boat.
Jes Aznar for The New York Times
Other militia boats are recruited from the commercial fishing fleet. But because the most generous Chinese government subsidies go to the biggest vessels, even these commercial trawlers are larger than most of the Philippine coast guard’s fleet.
An emboldened coast guard If the purpose of the maritime militia is to crowd contested waters, the Chinese coast guard is also redefining its role, veering dangerously close to a military stance.
Radiating out from the military bases China constructed by pouring sand on underwater Spratly reefs, such as Mischief and Subi, China’s coast guard roams the South China Sea. Chinese ships have fired water cannons at Philippine and Vietnamese boats. They have tangled with the Indonesian Coast Guard.
And in a week in May, Chinese coast guard ships, together with maritime militia boats, churned through waters off the coast of Vietnam in the exact same, curious routing. The paths the vessels took created the character 中, which is the first character in the Chinese word for “China.” The character was sprawled over a 350-mile stretch, equivalent to the distance from New York City to Canada.
China’s coast guard has expanded the range of its patrols
2021
CHINA
Movements of
Chinese coast
guard ships
South
China
Sea
Vietnam
Philippines
Spratly
Islands
MALAYSIA
2022
CHINA
South
China
Sea
Spratly
Islands
2023
CHINA
South
China
Sea
Spratly
Islands
Note: Data runs from Nov. 1 through Oct. 31 for each year.
The Chinese coast guard is now the world’s largest, and its range and presence in the South China Sea have increased dramatically in recent years. Stocked with retired navy corvettes and newer vessels that are longer than most U.S. Navy destroyers, the Chinese coast guard boasts ships that dwarf those of other nations.
Philippine coast guard
Chinese coast guard
Chinese coast guard
Chinese coast
guard
Philippine
coast guard
Chinese coast
guard
Chinese coast guard
Philippine coast guard
Chinese coast guard
Jes Aznar for The New York Times
With an emboldened Chinese coast guard flanked by a powerful maritime militia, there are fears growing of a showdown in the South China Sea.
“Every single reef has some fraction of a percent of a chance,” Mr. Poling said, “to be the next international flashpoint.”
About the ship data: The graphics use the automatic identification systems (AIS) track data of 174 militia fishing boats and 75 coast guard ships. The militia boats were identified by the C.S.I.S. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, including the ones identified as “highly likely” to be militia. The coast guard ships were identified by Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, and from news reports compiled by The New York Times. This data is an undercount of coast guard and militia activity because data reception is limited, some ships do not transmit information, and some ships transmit incorrect information. The last step of the top map includes an episode at the Second Thomas Shoal that shows vessel positions at 5 a.m. local time on Oct. 22, 2023 and vessel tracks over the prior ten hours.
Sources: Spire Global; Permanent Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the United Nations; Esri; Flanders Marine Institute
Shawn Paik contributed reporting.