Syukuro Manabe is seen in Nagoya, Aichi Prefecture, in a file photo taken on Dec. 13, 2013. (Mainichi/Ai Oba)

       Syukuro Manabe, center, greets Prince Akishino and Princess Kiko (currently the Crown Prince and Crown Princess, respectively), at the Kyoto International Conference Center where he was inducted into The Earth Hall of Fame Kyoto on Feb. 14, 2010 in the city of Kyoto's Sakyo Ward. At far right is Nobel Peace Prize winner Wangari Maathai, who was also inducted into the Earth Hall of Fame Kyoto. (Mainichi/Ryoichi Mochizuki)

       TOKYO -- Princeton University senior meteorologist Syukuro Manabe, 90, who won a share in this year's Nobel Prize in physics, laid down the foundations for the prediction of global warming and other types of climate change that have now become a topic of everyday conversation around the world.

       In a previous interview with the Mainichi Shimbun, he had said, "I'm not the sharpest person around, but I tend to question things that for other people are 'eureka' moments, and mull them over in my mind forever, and that worked out for me in the end."

       Born in 1931 in what is presently the Shingucho district of the Ehime Prefecture city of Shikokuchuo in western Japan, Manabe grew up in a family of doctors. With his grandfather and father both physicians, Manabe himself aspired to become a doctor at one point. But while he was a student at the University of Tokyo, he joined the research team of then professor Shigekata Shono, and majored in meteorology. Why? "I had a horrible memory and I was clumsy with my hands. I thought that my only good trait was to gaze at the sky and get lost in my thoughts."

       Back then, progress was being made in the U.S. to carry out numerical forecasting of the weather with the use of computers based on the rules of physics. Meanwhile, inside the wooden building in which Manabe was doing research at the University of Tokyo, he and his colleagues were making attempts at numerical forecasting through manual calculations.

       A paper that Manabe wrote when he was in graduate school caught the attention of one Dr. Joseph Smagorinsky, who headed the U.S. Weather Bureau's General Circulation Research Section, which later became the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Smagorinsky invited Manabe to his organization, and immediately after Manabe crossed the Pacific, had him stay at his home. Manabe said, "I didn't know anything, and so Dr. Smagorinsky's wife taught me everything, like how to find a house."

       Smagorinsky told Manabe about his vision for developing a new "climate model," and instructed Manabe to get working on it. The climate model would make the prediction or recurrence of long-term climate change possible based on a numerical forecasting model for weather forecasts. Manabe said that he "never dreamed that global warming would become such a big problem," but found Smagorinsky's plan appealing. "I was excited indeed," Manabe said. "I thought it would be a difficult research topic, but it was a very interesting one, so I jumped into it with delight. As expected, it was very difficult."

       Subsequently, Manabe developed the one-dimensional atmospheric model, which looks at temperature distribution by portraying the atmosphere as a single cylinder standing perpendicular from the ground up. Using this method, Manabe was able to release groundbreaking research outcomes one after another that would lead to the prediction of climate change.

       In his past interview with the Mainichi, Manabe called the environment in which he was able to do his research "heaven." Smagorinsky secured massive amounts of research funding and allocated money to Manabe and others' research. Smagorinsky was the type of person who, if approached by someone from outside the organization about a research project for which they would have to produce results within two to three years, would decline, saying that they couldn't take on the project if the deadline was so short. He also left how Manabe conducted his research to Manabe himself, and didn't require him to constantly consult on matters.

       "My career would not have existed if this man, Smagorinsky, hadn't existed," Manabe said, with respect.

       (Japanese original by Ai Oba, Science & Environment News Department)

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