SINGAPORE: Singapore’s key shipments continued to expand last month, but growth slowed with the uncertain global macroeconomic backdrop and supply chain disruptions.

       Non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) rose 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) last month, according to data released by Enterprise Singapore (ESG) yesterday.

       Last month’s showing was below the median forecast of 16.5% tipped by analysts in a Bloomberg poll, and the pace of growth moderated from the 17.6% expansion in January, despite increases in both electronic and non-electronic Nodx.

       On a month-on-month (m-o-m) seasonally adjusted basis, non-oil exports dipped 2.8% last month, compared with the 5% increase seen the previous month. This was due to a decline in non-electronic exports, despite growth in electronics shipments.

       Nodx reached S$17.6bil (RM54.30bil) last month, lower than January’s S$18.1bil (RM55.84bil), on a seasonally adjusted basis.

       Barclays regional economist Brian Tan noted that the lower-than-expected Nodx print stemmed partly from a plunge in shipments of non-monetary gold, which tend to be volatile.

       A drop in shipments of specialised machinery also contributed to the drag on exports.

       But he said the below-expectations showing last month is unlikely to be reflective of a broader drop in external demand, especially as electronics exports rose m-o-m.

       “Exports of specialised machinery are also unlikely to stay low for long when there is still ample global demand for semiconductors,” Tan wrote.

       Oxford Economics senior economist Jung Sung Eun said that while real exports sustained their growth momentum last month, this is expected to weaken in the coming months as the Russia-Ukraine war dampens global trade and growth prospects.

       “Ongoing supply chain disruptions pose further challenges to trade, with localised lockdowns in China adding to temporary disruptions,” she said.

       Shenzhen, China’s tech and manufacturing hub, was placed under a seven-day lockdown from March 13 to stem Covid-19 infection spread, with non-essential businesses and public transport shut.

       Jung added that the challenging external environment and rising price pressures present downside risks for Singapore’s growth outlook.

       Electronic Nodx grew 11.6% last month, slower than the 14% y-o-y rise in January. Shipments were largely bolstered by growth in integrated circuits, disk media products and capacitors.

       Non-electronic Nodx increased 8.8% last month, from the 18.6 expansion in January, with structures of ships and boats, pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals the largest contributors to growth.

       ESG noted that Nodx to the top 10 markets as a whole rose last month, mainly due to higher exports to the European Union, China and Malaysia, driven by an increase in pharmaceutical and specialised machinery shipments.

       Oil domestic exports jumped 62.1% last month, extending on the 36.7% rise in January, with higher exports to Indonesia, Australia and the EU.

       On the whole, total trade expanded 21% year on year in February, following the 24.9% increase in January.

       This was driven by a 22.3% growth in total exports, and a 19.6% rise in total imports. — The Straits Times/ANN