PETALING JAYA: Localised issues, sentiments about the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) and even the new logo of Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) are likely to have more of an impact on voters than Undi18 when it comes to the state polls.
Evidence that young voters would likely vote against the ruling coalition in Sarawak if Undi18 is implemented in time for the upcoming state polls is “murky” at best, say political observers.
Despite allegations that the incumbent GPS state government wanted to have the state election carried out before Undi18 could be implemented by year end, observers say there is no strong indication that young voters statewide are leaning towards the Opposition.
Dr Arnold Puyok, a senior lecturer at Universiti Malaysia Sarawak’s Social Sciences and Humanities Faculty, said the tendency of young voters in the peninsula to support the Opposition cannot be applied to those in Sarawak.
“The evidence to suggest that young people would vote against GPS is murky.
“In the peninsula, the trends seem to suggest that young people are voting against the government, especially in urban areas.
“But we are not too sure if the youth in Sarawak will exhibit the same voting behaviour.
“In Sarawak, the issues are very localised and many are still influenced by MA63 and state sentiments,” he added.
Undi18, whether it is implemented now or later, will not be an issue for the GPS government, said Arnold, adding that when the time comes, political parties would have no choice but to embrace the young, who will shape the country’s political landscape in the future.
“Undi18 will eventually be implemented and everyone will be affected by it,” he said.
On Sept 3, the Kuching High Court ordered the Election Commission (EC) and the Federal Government to implement Undi18 by Dec 31 this year, which involves lowering the voting age from 21 to 18.
For now, Arnold said the state government needs to hold the polls as soon as possible to get the people’s mandate to legitimise its position and catch the Opposition off guard.
“Doing it sooner rather than later is also advantageous to GPS as the Opposition at the moment is quite fragmented,” he added.
A big challenge that political parties would face on polling day would be in ensuring good voter turnout amid the Covid-19 crisis, said Arnold, pointing out that the numbers may be low as people, especially the elderly, could be reluctant to come out due to the virus.
Young voters may also refuse to vote as they see politics in this country as merely the game of the political elites, while some may refuse to exercise their democratic right as a sign of protest, he added.
“Turnout during the 2016 election was quite high across the board, as people liked what the late Tan Sri Adenan Satem (former Sarawak chief minister) said and did, such as his populist policies.
“But nowadays, the concern of most people is health and economic security, not politics,” he said.
On the challenges that GPS might face in contesting under its “kenyalang” (hornbill) logo for the first time ever after the parties in the coalition left the Barisan Nasional fold in 2018, Arnold said in areas where the ties are strong between the candidate and voters, the logo issue would be secondary.
“Like Sabah, Sarawak politics is largely personal as well.
“People tend to support the candidate more than the party,” he added.
Assoc Prof Dr Azman Awang Pawi, a lecturer at the Academy of Malay Studies, Universiti Malaya, said that the criticism levelled against the GPS government on the Undi18 issue has become campaign material for the Opposition.
“Undi18 has often been seen as being detrimental to the advantages held by GPS because it can be difficult to predict the voting patterns of the young.
“However, this is not very accurate if it is seen as a whole because young voters are most likely to still be influenced by their parents in the context of Sarawak and GPS support,” he said.
From another point of view, the number of first-time voters via the automatic voter registration system and Undi18 could influence state seats that were won by a razor-thin majority in the last state election, he acknowledged.
“It is all the more risky if we consider that the voter turnout is predicted to be lower compared to the last state election in 2016 because of fears of Covid-19 this time around,” Azman said.
The biggest challenge would be in ensuring voters turn up to cast their ballot on polling day despite the pandemic, he said, adding that there is also a risk of “overconfidence”.
“This happens when party supporters are confident that the seat will be successfully defended.
“When this happens, they will feel complacent and not come out to vote. This is very dangerous to a political party,” he said.
Political parties contesting in the state polls and the EC must continuously encourage people to vote, while Covid-19 vaccine boosters could also be offered before or after voting, he suggested.
“This could increase voter confidence, in that they are in a safe and controlled environment,” he said.
Another major test that GPS would be up against is in contesting under its own logo for the first time, as it could be confusing for some supporters of the older generation who were more familiar with the Barisan “dacing” (weighing scale) symbol.
“Previously, the Barisan symbol was synonymous with Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) and Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), but it has now changed and the new logo has yet to be put to the test.
“What’s even more confusing is that there is an Opposition party also using a hornbill symbol, which might confuse voters,” said Azman.
Sarawak Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari Tun Openg had previously dismissed allegations by the Opposition that GPS wanted to hold the state election quickly in order to avoid the implementation of Undi18 by year end.
He said the GPS-led government was not afraid of Undi18 as they were the ones who had amended the state constitution to lower the minimum age requirement to vote from 21 to 18.