TOKYO – As the dust settles in Japan a week after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority in the general election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba appears to have won a reprieve in the battle for influence ahead of a special Parliament session expected on Nov 11.

       The odds are that the 67-year-old, who just became prime minister on Oct 1, will stay on as leader of a minority government and escape the fate of becoming Japan’s shortest-lived leader. This is because he will likely get the largest vote share when Parliament convenes to choose the prime minister, with his party having the largest presence and a fragmented opposition unwilling to work together.

       In remarks on Nov 1 to mark his first month in office, Mr Ishiba said: “It has been a really hectic month, and I have not had the time to catch my breath. “We have heard the voters’ harsh verdict loud and clear, and must solemnly and humbly accept the outcome. We will carefully manage the government from now on, with the understanding of many parties.”

       A minority government would complicate the passage of legislation, given the ruling party’s need for the buy-in of smaller parties. However, this arrangement could offer some stability for Asia’s second-largest economy.

       But Mr Ishiba will nonetheless have to walk a tightrope: A fresh scandal could easily ignite opposition efforts to bring down his administration via a no-confidence motion.

       He will also need to rebuild public trust that has eroded, according to media surveys taken after the general election.

       A Kyodo News poll conducted on Oct 28 and 29 saw the Cabinet’s approval rating dropping to 32.1 per cent, a plunge of 18.6 percentage points from the Oct 1 and 2 survey. Another poll by the Yomiuri newspaper showed approval at 34 per cent, down 17 percentage points from the previous survey.

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       Following protocol, Mr Ishiba’s Cabinet will formally resign on the morning of Nov 11, before the special Diet session to choose the prime minister.

       If he gets re-elected, Mr Ishiba will form his second Cabinet that will likely comprise the same faces, except two replacements for Justice Minister Hideki Makihara and Agriculture Minister Yasuhiro Ozato, who lost their seats in the Oct 27 election.

       The prime ministerial vote can take up to two rounds. In the first round, lawmakers of different political party stripes typically vote for their respective leaders, making it unlikely for any candidate to secure a clear majority.

       In this case, the top two candidates will go into a run-off that only requires a plurality to win.

       Both the opposition Democratic Party For The People (DPFP) and Japan Innovation Party (also known as Nippon Ishin no Kai, or Ishin for short) have said they will work with the government of the day on a policy-by-policy basis via a so-called “confidence and supply agreement” – instead of forming a multi-party coalition to take down the ruling administration.

       This, experts said, effectively gives the two parties more leverage to advance their policies while retaining the option to reject policies by pulling back support.

       This gives the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito the upper hand in what will ultimately be a numbers game.

       The LDP secured 191 seats and the Komeito won 24 during the election, bringing their combined total to 215 seats in the 465-member Lower House.

       The total was later increased to 221, after LDP added six lawmakers to its ranks, including those who were forced to run as independents in the election due to their culpability in a damaging political slush fund scandal.

       The only path to forming the government for Mr Yoshihiko Noda, who leads the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) that won 148 seats, is to enter a broad coalition with other parties such as Ishin with 38 seats, and DPFP with 28 seats.

       Such a scenario would be similar to what happened in 1993, when the LDP lost its majority but remained the biggest party in Parliament. Eight parties united on an anti-LDP platform and unseated the LDP for the first time since its founding in 1955, electing Mr Morihiro Hosokawa as prime minister.

       But that marriage of convenience has been a cautionary tale, collapsing within just eight months.

       The next prime minister, Mr Tsutomu Hata, fared even worse, lasting just 64 days after the coalition fell apart following the withdrawal of one party, thus paving the way for the LDP to return to power.

       While the DPFP and Ishin have had a recent history of working with the CDP to launch no-confidence motions against the LDP government over scandals, their conservative ideologies align them more closely with the LDP than with the CDP.

       For example, the DPFP has criticised the CDP, which is against a drastic hike in military spending, for defence policies that are “against national security”.

       Yet, the DPFP also has disagreements with the LDP over its plan to drastically cut taxes to increase take-home pay and boost consumption. Critics say the policy idea could potentially worsen Japan’s fiscal health and hamper its ability to pay for big-ticket items such as defence and welfare.

       The business community is largely in favour of a minority government with the LDP and Komeito at its core, as this would bring a semblance of continuity and stability.

       But Mr Takeshi Niinami, who leads the Japan Association of Corporate Executives, warned against political expediency. “We must be careful not to let the fiscal burden grow by forming a supersized coalition that simply accepts each other’s policies,” he said.

       An editorial in the Asahi newspaper on Nov 2 states: “It is irresponsible that the DPFP is turning away from the crucial question of how to finance tax reductions and promote generous spending, as if swinging a magic wand.”

       Nonetheless, Dr Sota Kato of The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research think-tank told The Straits Times that the situation “could be a positive” for Mr Ishiba if he plays his cards well.

       “Ishiba will have no choice but to pass policies by discussing them with the DPFP or Ishin, or even the CDP,” he said.

       “But Ishiba, who has been in direct conflict with the mainstream groups in the LDP for his long-time advocacy of political reform, has the chance to pull off a bold move by leveraging the opposition numbers to suppress the LDP mainstream.”