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       Republican candidates for their party’s 2024 presidential nomination are heading to Iowa this weekend to participate in the Family Leadership Summit. The event is hosted by an organization run by Bob Vander Plaats, one of those names that is the subject of renewed murmurs every four years as political observers start to tally presidential endorsements.

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       Vander Plaats was never a Donald Trump guy, even if he was not necessarily a never-Trump guy. He’s also not yet a DeSantis guy, as in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). The best he could manage when describing the field to Politico was one of the blandest expressions of support imaginable.

       “If you’re looking for an alternative to Trump, I think Gov. DeSantis is the front-runner right now,” he said.

       And if you’re looking for an alternative to Earth, I think Mars is the front-runner right now.

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       It was not Vander Plaats’s intent, presumably, but this is an excellent distillation of DeSantis’s problem. For a long time, he was hailed as the guy who might be the counterweight to Trump, the only other Republican not in single digits. Now he’s just the only other Republican not in single digits, the 12-to-1 shot that might make a decent show bet.

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       DeSantis’s campaign is obviously very aware of the perception that his presidential efforts might have contracted gangrene. It produced a memo this month to send to donors, arguing that the campaign is right where it wants to be and that the energy is great and all of the other things campaigns say to donors until they announce they’re dropping out.

       The memo, obtained by NBC News, does include some remarkable assertions. It suggests that “Tim Scott” — as in Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) — has “earned a serious look at this stage,” but that “Vivek, Burgum, and Nikki” earn little interest while “Pence and Christie” are opposed by too many Republicans.

       This is all probably true, but it’s very interesting to note how each candidate is described. Former vice president Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie get assertive last-name mentions. Business executive Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Scott get first names, too — with the two Indian American candidates getting first names only.

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       There are little hints as to the intentions of the well-funded pro-DeSantis super PAC. The external committee is legally barred from communicating with DeSantis’s campaign; if the campaign could tell them where to spend money, after all, that would defeat the purpose of campaign contribution limits. But DeSantis’s team feels pretty confident that “pro-DeSantis efforts are currently, and will continue to run a robust effort in Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire, includes paid media and field.” It also theorizes that Scott will “receive appropriate scrutiny in the weeks ahead,” which is something to keep an eye out for. Particularly since one way campaigns can direct external efforts is by making public pronouncements about what they need.

       The memo has the hallmarks of a document that is “internal” but intended to seep out into the public. It contains a rehashing of the various elements of DeSantis’s campaign patter, as though big donors aren’t already aware of what DeSantis says on the stump. At one point, the memo amusingly promises that there is “[m]ore to come in the Fall of 2023,” including rhetoric about “woke military, the deep state, school choice and beyond.” You will be forgiven if you thought that sort of stuff was already central to DeSantis’s pitch.

       All of that aside, the point of the document is to make the case that DeSantis can still win. Perhaps it is a coincidence that NBC got this the same week as multiple reports indicated that Fox News honcho Rupert Murdoch thought DeSantis was doomed. Perhaps it wasn’t. But the case the memo makes isn’t that strong, regardless.

       Analysis: Murdoch is realizing that he’s stuck with the monster he created

       “Early state voters are only softly committed to the candidates they select on a ballot question this far out — including many Trump supporters,” it argues. “Our focus group participants in the early states even say that they don’t plan on making up their mind until they meet the candidates or watch them debate.”

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       We hear this every four years, of course, that voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are just so thoughtful about who they pick. It’s a useful frame for DeSantis in the moment.

       The memo continues: “While we know Trump’s floor is [around] 25 percent, that leaves [three-quarters] of the electorate willing to consider other viable options.”

       So let’s assess this. Fox News polling conducted in late June found that about 6 in 10 Republican primary voters said they would definitely vote for Donald Trump, compared with about 3 in 10 who said the same of DeSantis. These numbers can change (to which Trump can attest directly), but it suggests that Trump’s floor is likely to be higher than 25 percent.

       Also, note that only 15 percent of Republican primary voters say they need more information about DeSantis before making up their minds. Four in 10 think they have enough info — but only might cast a ballot for him.

       NBC News polling released last month shows that Republican primary voters do largely prefer Trump and DeSantis as candidates, in that order. But since April, the percentage of voters saying Scott is their second choice has increased dramatically. The percentage saying DeSantis is their first choice went in the other direction.

       A key problem for DeSantis is that Trump is well known and strongly supported, despite DeSantis’s weeks of campaigning as a presidential candidate and months as a “likely” candidate doing normal campaign stuff. The argument that voters in early states are only softly committed may be an opening for him against Trump — but it may also be an opening for everyone else against him.

       For right now, though, DeSantis donors can take consolation in Bob Vander Plaats’s stirring words: “I think Gov. DeSantis is the front-runner right now” in the race to be the alternative to Trump.

       “Right now,” indeed.

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