Ahead of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections, keeping food prices under check has emerged as one of the topmost priorities for the government.

       Food prices would likely have a bearing on the preferences of voters. In the past, there have been instances when governments have been voted out over rising food inflation.

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       For a year now, the Centre has announced a series of measures to check food prices like export bans, allowing duty-free imports of most pulses and edible oils till March 2025, stopping diversion of sugarcane juice for making ethanol to conserve the sweetener for domestic consumption, among others.

       The government is also simultaneously selling packaged wheat, rice, Atta (wheat flour), gram dal under the ‘Bharat’ brand to make sure food items are available at affordable prices.

       Liquidation of public stocks of wheat and rice has also been taken up to cool down rates. However, going forward, most experts said that inflation management in the coming months will depend on how the rabi harvest comes through and the vagaries of weather. Excessive and sudden rise in temperature between April to June could also play a part in pushing up prices, particularly of vegetables and perishable food items.

       The good news is that so far, all indications hint that the 2024 southwest monsoon could be ‘normal’ as El Ni？o is waning and ‘La Ni？a’ is about to set in.

       Chart 1: Retail Price of Major Food Commodities (in Rs/Kg in Delhi Markets)

       Source: Department of Consumer Affairs

       

Commodity	3-Apr	3-Mar	% Change
Rice	40	40	0.0
Wheat	29	29	0.0
Atta (wheat flour)	31	31	0.0
Gram Dal	82	78	5.1
Tur Dal	157	157	0.0
Urad Dal	140	143	-2.1
Moong Dal	125	122	2.5
Masoor Dal	87	85	2.4
Groundnut Oil (pkgd)	139	133	4.5
Mustard Oil (pkgd)	139	133	4.5
Soyoil	131	122	7.4
Potato	25	17	47.1
Onion	32	40	-20.0
Tomato	40	42	-4.8
Sugar	44	44	0.0

       Chart 2: Food Inflation (combined)

       Source: MOSPI

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Period	Inflation (in %)
Apr-23	3.84
May-23	2.96
Jun-23	4.55
Jul-23	11.51
Aug-23	9.94
Sep-23	6.62
Oct-23	6.61
Nov-23	8.7
Dec-23	9.53
Jan-24	8.3