Lee Anderson issues huge prediction after joining Reform

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       The initial impact of Lee Anderson's defection this week has been revealed in a new poll which has shown the Tories losing support to his new party Reform UK.

       The weekly Techne UK tracker poll for Express.co.uk has shown that the Conservative support among voters has dropped a point to 22% in the last seven days while Reform UK has gone up one to 12% - its highest result from this polling company. Labour remains the same on 44% giving Sir Keir Starmer an even bigger cushion of 22 points while the Lib Dems are unmoved on 11% and the Greens are down one to 5%.

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       According to the prediction website Electoral Calculus if this was the result of a general election the Conservatives would be reduced to 63 seats, by far the worst number in their 346-year history. Labour are projected to have a huge majority of 330.

       While Reform are confident of Lee Anderson holding on to his seat, the Electoral Calculus prediction has them with zero wins despite being the third party in popular support.

       Anderson joined Reform after being controversially suspended by the Tories over comments he made about Labour's London Mayor Sadiq Khan suggesting that Islamist extremists are his "mates". Anderson refused to apologise and the Rishi Sunak accused him of Islamophobia leading the Ashfield MP to decide to join Richard Tice's Reform UK.

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       Mr Tice said: “Following on from the 2,400 new members on the Lee effect, we knew the polling would go up. More to follow.”

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       Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo put the latest fluctuations down to the "Lee Anderson effect".

       But it also underlined that the Budget last week completely failed to have any positive impact on the Tories' fortunes.

       Ms Morizzo said: "Another very difficult week for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives saw the former Deputy Party Chairman Lee Anderson MP defect directly to Reform UK. Clearly successful political parties need to show unity - not disunity- and as such Anderson’s decision to join Reform UK, has sent shockwaves across Westminster.

       "Our tracker poll shows that Reform UK recorded our highest national vote share for the party - up 1 point giving Richard Tice’s party 12%.

       "It is clear to me that one of the main problems the Conservatives face is that they continue to be the party most affected by voters turning to Reform. Complicated weeks ahead for sure for the Conservatives."

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       Labour are heading for a record majority (Image: ELECTORAL CALCULUS)

       The survey of 1,637 voters showed that 17% of 2019 Tory voters who helped deliver an 80-seat majority for Boris Johnson have now gone to Reform. A fifth (20%) of those Tory voters are so disillusioned that they will not vote (12%) or are uncertain (8%).

       Meanwhile, only 44% of 2019 Conservative voters would vote for the party again.

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       Labour continue to lead in every economic and social category including among pensioners - traditionally a strong group for the Tories - where only 30% back Rishi Sunak's party after getting little in the Budget.

       But apathy is high with less than half (45%) certain to vote and a third (33%) unlikely to vote or uncertain.

       The continued terrible polling seems to explain why Rishi Sunak yesterday ruled out an early election on May 2 amid growing speculation that some of his advisers are pushing for it.

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