The deployment of US THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea will increase tension in the region, and also causes the danger of a new bloc confrontation in North-East Asia, said Georgy Toloraya, Director of the Center for Asian Strategy at the Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Quite recently Washington and Seoul agreed on THAAD missile defense system deployment in South Korea, which should be on alert service till the end of 2017. The system should protect South Korea against North Korea's ballistic missiles, but Moscow and Beijing believe that it threatens the military balance in the region.
The deployment of US anti-missiles in South Korea is part of a global missile defense system, which threatens Russia and China, Toloraya said in an interview to valdaiclub.com. According to him, North Korean ballistic missiles are only a pretext for the implementation of the US plans.
"We must recognize that China expressed great concern on this issue and has all good reasons, because the system, and, more precisely, its radar and warning devices actually cover the entire North-Eastern China at a distance of 2000 kilometers", – Toloraya said . – This, naturally, reduces the possibility of retaliatory blow from China, and thus violates the strategic balance in the region. "
Despite the fact that this system is only intended against so-called free-falling warheads - that is, if Russian missiles fly in the US direction, they won't be intercepted by THAAD – Russia also fears that its deployment would violate the strategic balance, Toloraya stressed.
"In bilateral contacts with the South Koreans we supported the Chinese position, and opposed THAAD deployment. But they did not listen, and, of course, such diplomatic pirouette can not remain without consequences. Of course, the Russian-South Korean relations could become colder. Perhaps, contacts at the highest level will be jeopardized, foreign policy issues will be discussed with less sincerity, and of course, the South Koreans now do not have the right to try to get from us some initiative sanctions against North Korea ", – he said.
The strategic implication of this step may be the formation in North-East Asia of blocs in the spirit of the Cold war, Toloraya said.
"I fear that closeness in the Russian-North Korean relations will grow in just the same ratio as the decline in Russian-South Korean relations. Of course, these are undesirable developments. Nobody will feel relief. But this is not our choice. We have always been opposed to such a development, but are obliged to react ", – the expert stressed.
Moreover, the decision of Seoul and Washington to deploy THAAD system on the Korean territory can be interpreted as a violation of the UN Security Council resolution# 2270, which demands from the parties to refrain from actions that will increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula, Toloraya pointed out. According to him, the appearance of the US anti-missiles on the Korean peninsula will lead to further increase of tensions between North and South.
"This will create difficulties for the dialogue development. The North Koreans have already quite sharply reacted to these moves, and, moreover, said that they would "mercilessly punish and turn into a pile of ashes' these systems and their deployment locations. The South Koreans also have promised retaliation measures in response to these threats, that is, the tension is forced and becomes stronger ", – Toloraya said.
On July 19, as Yonhap News Agency reported with reference to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea made test launches of three more ballistic missiles. According to the South Korean military, missiles flew 500–600 kilometers – a distance which would be enough to hit targets anywhere in South Korea. The agency considers these launches of ballistic missiles as North Korean response to plans to deploy the US missile defense system.
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