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       Summer’s third act begins today, and what a pleasant start it is, with low humidity and below-normal temperatures, although we do have some haze in the sky from Canadian wildfires. While temperatures should struggle to reach 90 degrees through much of this first week of August, next week we could start adding to our count again of 90 degree days, which currently stands at 19. Overall, we’re predicting near-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall for the month.

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       The normal average temperature for August is 79.4 degrees; last year Washington registered a slightly hotter-than-average August temperature of 80.4 degrees (taking into account highs and lows). This August we lean toward a monthly average temperature of 79 to 80 degrees. Rainfall averages 3.25 inches in August; last year there were 2.42 inches. There are signs, however, that the recently wet pattern could continue and yield 3 to 5 inches of rain this month.

       A recent model forecast (shown below) delivers about half of that rainfall in the first half of August:

       The main driver in our forecast for near-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall is the developing El Ni？o, the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that influences weather patterns worldwide. One such influence tends to be a more active jet stream that can sometimes enhance rainfall in our region. El Ni？o has reached moderate strength, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which says there is a 90 percent chance that El Ni？o will continue through the upcoming winter.

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       Longer-term models are mixed for the second half of August, with some occasional hotter periods possible. Thus we predict near-normal temperatures overall despite the cooler start this week.

       July recap

       July is typically our hottest month of the year. This July ended up with an average temperature of 81.6 degrees, which is 0.6 degrees hotter than normal and the 15th-hottest July on record. The month will be remembered for the three-day heat wave in its final week — the three-day average temperatures of 87 degrees helped to nudge the monthly average just above normal — and the violent storms that broke the heat. Rainfall of 6.46 inches was 2.13 inches wetter than normal and the 25th wettest on record.

       A month ago, on July 1, we predicted July would finish with average temperatures of 79 to 81 degrees, just slightly below where we ended up. For rainfall, we accurately predicted 4.5 to 6.5 inches. Not a bad forecast overall.

       The July calendar recap shows a mixed story of both cool and hot periods, along with dry and wet intervals:

       Only one record was set at the area’s official observing stations, as Washington Dulles International Airport’s high of 98 degrees July 27 tied the record for the date from 1993.

       From a year-to-date standpoint, 2023 is tracking as the 26th-driest and third-hottest year on record going back to the late 1800s:

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