As late as November 2021, military analysts in the West estimated that invading Russian forces could overrun the capital of Ukraine in a matter of days. Over a month has passed since the invasion began—Kyiv stands. This is just the latest example of pre-war miscalculation, a flaw to which the United States is hardly immune.…

       The remainder of this commentary is available at www.realclearworld.com

       Brian Michael Jenkins is a senior adviser to the president of the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and author of numerous books, reports, and articles on terrorism-related topics.

       This commentary originally appeared on RealClearWorld on March 28, 2022. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.

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