ANALYSIS
Migrants on a small boat (Image: PA)
“Blame the weather”...it’s a classic British pastime when things go a bit skew whiff. From train delays to lacklustre retail sales, too hot, too cold, too wet, too windy - it’s always the fault of mother nature.
Now the government is getting in on the act, blaming weather conditions for the surge number of illegal migrants crossing the English Channel on small boats. A record 11,074 people arrived on UK shores before May this year, a rise of almost 50% compared with the same period last year.
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According to the Home Office figures, 60 of those days this year were classed as "red days" - where Channel crossings are more likely because of good weather - compared with just 27 last year.
It says that the doubling of red days from January to April 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, "coincides with small boat arrivals being 46% higher" over that period.
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The figures don’t take into account Saturday’s record day, when more than 1,100 migrants arrived prompting a Cabinet minister to say it’s like a “taxi” service.
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There is no doubt that more migrants will attempt crossings when the weather is set fair and the situation is likely to get worse this summer.
But the data also shows that there are significantly more people making the crossing when the weather is not ideal - a rise of 30% on last year, and more than double compared with the year before.
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What this Home Office report doesn’t show is the brazen inaction of French police and their failure to stop the boats from leaving the continent.
And it fails to show the complete and utter failure of the Labour government’s attempt to “smash the gangs” - a continuing but evermore laughable promise made by Sir Keir Starmer.
Migration is seen as a major reason why Labour lost the recent Runcorn and Helsby by-election to Reform UK.
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One senior official says there is unlikely to be any drop in the number of crossings until 2026 at the earliest.
The Daily Express understands that France will agree to change its own regulations to allow the interception of boats in shallow water this summer.
But the changes are likely to come too late to stop 2025 being a record year for crossings.