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       As Youthful Arrests Spike, Their Consequences Rise, Too by James P. Smith

       Related Topics: Crime, Criminal Justice, Juvenile Delinquency, United States Citation Embed View related products Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on LinkedIn

       Convictions and Sustained Damage

       The unconditional conviction rate among the young Americans examined has risen dramatically over time, especially for women. Across all groups, Americans ages 26–35 were 6.5 times more likely to have been convicted of a crime by 26 when compared with the oldest age group in the study.

       The increase in convictions is due both to an increase in the probability of arrest by age 26 and to an increase in conviction given arrest. In the 66-plus age group, the probability of conviction after arrest by 26 was about one in four, but for those ages 26–35, it is approaching an even bet. Conditional on arrest, there are small differences in conviction rates by gender and race.

       What the Data Tell Us

       Contact with the criminal justice system can cause long-term harms for Americans. An arrest for a crime by age 26 was associated with a reduction in marriage probability by 3.5 percentage points; the marriage probability of those with multiple arrests by age 26 was 9 percentage points lower — a significant reduction. The added estimated effect of a conviction by age 26 on marriage probability is a reduction of about 3 percentage points (but this is not statistically significant at conventional levels).

       Those arrested at least once by age 26 had about $5,000 less in earnings per year as adults, and this difference was about $8,000 higher if there were multiple arrests by that age. The largest negatives were associated with violent and drug arrests: Those who had been arrested for these crimes by age 26 averaged about $11,000 less in earnings per year. Over a lifetime, these yearly income reductions are sizable. Over an average of 35 working years, the average lifetime penalty for being arrested by age 26 would be $180,000, with an additional lifetime penalty of about $275,000 for multiple arrests by age 26.

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