Angela Merkel’s ruling party was defeated in two German federal states at the recent elections to regional parliaments. Alexander Rahr, Research Director of the German-Russian Forum, told Valdaiclub.com how the chancellor’s policies would change after the failed election.

       The political establishment cannot turn a blind eye on new demands on the part of conservative voters who are dissatisfied with Germany’s migration policy, which means that Chancellor Merkel “will now begin to act convulsively,” Alexander Rahr believes.

       “No one is saying this openly, but in fact Europe’s borders are being closed. Expect this to be sold not as a change of Merkel’s policies, but as a fault of Erdogan, who violates human rights and does not let refugees to go to Europe,” the expert said.

       The attempt to redistribute Germany-bound refugees among other European countries ended in a failure, because they sealed off their borders, do not take in refugees who originally moved to Germany and do not want to change their policies.

       “Merkel must understand that her policy is no longer supported in the European Union. And the more she pushes for Germany’s openness and creation of a new humane society by integration of people from Arab countries, the sooner it will lose its leadership in Europe,” Rahr said.

       Moreover, Rahr believes, Germany has already begun to lose its leadership, becoming isolated within Europe because of the migration crisis.

       “This process can continue and we cannot rule it out that some EU countries will begin to buck Germany on other issues, too. For instance, Poland, which does not want Germany to lecture it about democracy. Greece will try to negotiate some privileges over the refugee crisis, like subsidies and writing off its debts. Turmoil and change of policies can begin throughout the European Union,” the expert believes.

       According to Rahr, Merkel realizes that no other country but Germany can be a leader in Europe. “Therefore, I think, no effort will be spared to garner support of the EU states and stabilize Merkel’s authority within Germany,” he said.

       “The problem of how to stem the refugee influx to Europe, in particular, to Germany will be solved, on the one hand, by using Erdogan as an instrument (and the methods he will employ are unlikely to be humane and democratic), and, on the other hand, by giving Turkey different privileges, including visa-free regime with the EU and, of course, a lot of money for them to cope with it,” Rahr explained.

       “I think, the German authorities have finally realized that neither Germany, nor even the whole of Europe, can accommodate such numbers of refugees,” he concluded.

       According to Prof. Rahr, Germany has begun toughening its refugee policy and will have to lead Europe in this respect, if it wants to prove that it controls the situation. “This issue has been presented implicitly as a beautifully wrapped package of a new asylum policy. But the legislation is becoming tougher,”

       Rahr said. For example, the refugees who receive political asylum in Germany can no longer invite their relatives, although earlier this was allowed. Sooner or later, large groups of refugees from the Maghreb countries not at war, such as Algeria, Morocco, or Tunisia, will be sent back home in droves. The expert believes that all EU countries will do this. “Syrians will be only accepted with official papers, unlike in the past, when they simply rushed across the border,” Rahr said.

       The EU’s external borders have been closed. Macedonia has shut down its border with Greece, which has been de facto expelled from the Schengen area and now has to deal with the migration issue single-handedly. “NATO has joined in the game, which I consider ridiculous, because NATO warships patrolling the Greek seas cannot do anything. If they see boats with refugees, including those that are sinking, they can only bring these people in the boats to EU territory. So sending alliance warships to the region doesn’t make much sense. But Europe will continue to do this to create the semblance of protecting or closing the EU border,” Alexander Rahr said.

       “They are doing this to show the public in Germany and other European countries that Europe is changing, that it is now protecting itself because it can no longer deal with the amount of migrants it believed it could handle six months ago,” the expert concluded.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.