The EU-Turkey agreement will deliver only marginal results.

       The European Union’s (EU) recent agreement with Turkey over the Syrian migrant issue is part of Europe’s strategy to stem the tide of refugees flowing into the continent’s borders. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-arms policy towards refugees who make it into the EU heightens the need for the overall number of these migrants to be curtailed. Likewise the Paris shootings have spurred domestic pressures within European countries for reduced migrant figures – regardless of the validity of the perceived migrant-terrorist connection. Hence Europe’s willingness to offer concessions to Ankara in the form of funds and prospects for regulatory visa liberalization and re-invigorated EU accession talks. In return, Turkey will deliver policies that incrementally slow the migrant flow, such as further investment in refugee camps using EU funding, as well as the formulation of a national strategy to cope with the sheer number of existing refugees.

       Yet the EU-Turkey agreement will deliver only marginal results. First and foremost because President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is very conscious of the Turkish population’s dissatisfaction with the country’s migrant burden. As such, the president will be reluctant to offer refugees a more durable and advantageous status that would cause them to prefer staying within Turkish borders rather than to move further West. This point is particularly relevant in the context of President Erdogan’s wishes for a constitutional reform that will require popular approval through a referendum in the medium-term future. There may be a perception, in the coming months, that the EU-Turkey agreement is bearing fruit, as inclement weather will marginally dissuade migrants in their journeys, but the reality is that Ankara’s efforts will remain limited. The European Union is aware of this, which explains its preference for an incremental approach to delivering its promised rewards to the Turkish government.

       Beyond all of these limitations, a greater consideration is also at play; namely that no single policy will ever be able to significantly halt the flow of refugees so long as instability and poverty continue to rattle Syria, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa. While certainly significant in its own regard, Syria is but one of several sources feeding into the current refugee crisis. Such crises are also to be expected far beyond Europe’s borders in the foreseeable future. Many pressures, including climate change, will raise the profile of migration as a key 21st century threat that no country on its own will be able to guard against.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.