A complex and subtle process is taking place in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – some countries are moving towards deeper integration, whereas others are still rebelling against a collective Soviet past. As national elites isolate themselves regionally, they also get the most out of their sovereignty by inviting lucrative international competition for influence.

       The Soviet Union had largely artificial, subsidized economic ties to its former republics. Such ties are now irrelevant – Russia does not need Uzbek cotton or Georgian fruit and wine.

       Meanwhile, the development of the market economy in the region has hindered and is still hindering these countries from more meaningful integration. For this reason, such steps have been taken only among a narrow group of CIS states that includes Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine – both potentially and de facto, inasmuch as the politically weak Ukrainian elite still relies on Russian support.

       Armenia is also playing a significant, if more limited role in this integration. Its elite want to couch the country in a larger international association because history has taught them that they may otherwise find themselves in a dire geopolitical situation.

       Georgia is the only country to have quit the CIS officially. I hope that it will eventually return to the CIS because such a secession, if one can call it that, is neither normal nor appropriate. Considering the low level of its domestic development and living standards, Georgia is doing rather well. I hope that it will return to the CIS, although not necessarily as a formal member – it is clear that the egregious mistakes committed by its leadership, apparently on someone’s suggestion, have prohibited it from fully returning.

       What happened in Georgia was truly an awful mistake. As a result, it lost part of its territory that could have been relatively independent and remained so for the next 20, 30, or 50 years; and, if Georgia had made significant progress in that time, these territories would likely have stayed voluntarily. However, that was not the case, and Georgia became involved in an armed conflict either by ill will or lack of foresight. But I believe that Georgia and Russia will restore normal relations sooner or later.

       I don’t think that there are many areas left in which CIS countries could feasibly expand their cooperation. In the 1990s, when the CIS represented what Vladimir Putin called a divorce settlement, we signed a tremendous amount of papers and cooperated with each other. Now, we are in a totally different position – we have been divorced for almost two decades, and there is nothing left to split. But there will be new projects and areas of mutual interest. The most obvious is Central Asian security following the U.S. and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. Russia must resolve this issue not only with its CIS neighbors but with China and India and through the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

       I don’t think that there will be any particularly significant CIS projects in the future, although it is clear that we must continue our cooperation in culture and education. Russia must incite this cooperation primarily on its own initiative due to its interest in preserving its language and culture in countries that adopted them for centuries. Russia is well aware that this is a mutually beneficial process and that these countries would be culturally weaker without it.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.