However much Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis wishes it weren’t so, the coronavirus is ravaging his state.

       DeSantis (R) has been at the forefront of the Republican effort to find a middle ground between his party’s stated opposition to measures aimed at containing the virus and keeping case totals low. That has meant that he has been more vocal than many about the need for widespread vaccinations, but the emergence of the delta variant (and not, as he has tried to argue, simple seasonality) has meant an alarming spike in new cases in the state.

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       Since the current surge began at the beginning of summer, Florida has seen an increase of nearly 70 new cases per 100,000 residents per day, second only to the surge in Louisiana. The state is now seeing almost as many cases per day as it did during the third surge in cases nationally, which began in September.

       That increase in cases has been accompanied by an increase in covid-19 patients being hospitalized. The average number of hospitalized covid patients in Florida is higher today than at any point since the third surge began and is approaching the peak the state saw last summer.

       If there is a silver lining here, it’s this: The surge in cases may be doing what DeSantis wasn’t able to. Since June 21, the state has recorded an increase in daily vaccinations, a turnaround that overlaps with the surge in new cases in many states.

       Here’s the change in daily vaccinations (a metric that’s a bit noisy, meaning it jumps around a lot).

       Compare the states that are above the median rates of vaccination at this point with the states that are above the median in terms of new cases per 100,000.

       Or, more directly: Let’s just throw the case rates (in orange) on top of the change in vaccinations. Look at the shifts in Florida and the Deep South relative to the surge in new cases.

       We can show this correlation more clearly by looking at a scatter plot. Here, the horizontal axis is the change in new vaccinations each day. The vertical is the change in new cases. As states move up — more cases — they generally move to the right, more vaccinations.

       There’s not much good news in the current surge, but a resulting increase in vaccinations counts.

       So does the fact that — so far, at least — the increase in cases and hospitalizations hasn’t led to significant increases in deaths. This may be because older people are more heavily vaccinated and, therefore, largely protected against the worst effects of the virus. It may also be because more cases are occurring among the unvaccinated, who tend to be younger.

       It’s not clear how or when the current surge will abate. But if it doesn’t lead to a significant number of deaths and, at the same time, prompts many of the vaccine-hesitant to get a shot, there will at least be something of a silver lining.