Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would like America to believe that the surge in coronavirus cases in his state is not that big a deal, that it’s just a function of seasonality and of people moving indoors because of the summer heat. He’s forced himself into this position by not only rejecting measures aimed at containing the virus, like mandated masks — he recently banned any mandates for schools — but by raising money off his objections to experts calling for better containment. He’s pushed Floridians to get vaccinated, but the state is still about in the middle of the pack nationally in terms of vaccinations administered, in no small part due to Republican hesitance.

       There are a lot of people in Florida and a lot of unvaccinated people in Florida and not a lot of official advocacy for efforts to contain the virus that are opposed by DeSantis’s political base, so what else can he do but shrug?

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       It is the case that the emergence of the delta variant has prompted surges in a number of states. On average, states are currently at about 28 percent of their peak average number of daily cases and 29 percent of their peak hospitalizations. In other words, if the most new cases the average state saw in a day was 1,000, it’s now seeing 280 new cases.

       As the graph below shows, though, a number of states are well above that value. You can see that most states hit their peak in new cases during the fall and winter. Peak hospitalizations were slightly more weighted toward the front-end of the pandemic. (We excluded deaths on this chart because the data are far more volatile.)

       In Florida, both the number of new cases and the number of hospitalizations are near the state’s peaks. The peak in cases came on Jan. 8; its peak in hospitalizations came on July 28 of last year.

       (Hospitalization data for Florida are only available since last July.)

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       On the surface, that hospitalization data seems to bolster DeSantis’s argument that what the state is seeing is simply some unavoidable seasonal effect. But both Arkansas and Hawaii also hit their hospitalization peaks in July or August of last year. They’re currently at 66 percent and 47 percent of those peaks, respectively.

       (Those numbers are frustrating to Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R). He’s recently expressed frustration that he signed a ban on mask mandates in schools, similar to the one embraced by DeSantis.)

       Another way of looking at how Florida is being hit by the virus at the moment is to consider the evolution of the pandemic since it began in early 2020. The interactive below shows the number of hospitalizations relative to the state’s peak for every day since. The four surges the country has seen are all indicated. You can use the slider to move the dates forward or backward. You can also shift to other metrics.

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       Show cases relative to state peak cases per 100,000 residents hospitalizations relative to state peak hospitalizations per 100,000 residents deaths relative to state peak deaths per 1,000,000 residents Run Stop

       March 1 SURGE 1

       Again, Florida stands out.

       It also stands out because, compared to other states that are at or above 50 percent of their peak hospitalizations, Florida’s vaccination rate is fairly good. Louisiana is seeing a surge in cases and hospitalizations, too, but it’s much less densely vaccinated (to its governor’s frustration). Washington and Oregon have hospitalizations above 50 percent of their prior peak, but that may be in part thanks to relatively young people getting sick, as is the case in nearby California. Younger Americans are less likely to be vaccinated.

       That’s the good news, of course. The number of deaths is still relatively low in the United States and in Florida. The current surge in cases has not yet led to a surge in deaths, thanks to some combination of more vaccinations, younger patients and perhaps better treatment.

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       This may be DeSantis’s bet, too: that the current surge will be less deadly than the state’s prior increases in cases. If so, it’s a risky bet. One-fifth of Florida seniors are not fully vaccinated against the virus, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The more the virus spreads, the more they’re at risk.

       But what’s the alternative? Asking people to wear masks? Limiting close person-to-person interactions? With 2024 looming?