RICHMOND — A new poll shows former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe with a solid lead over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the race for Virginia governor, giving McAuliffe a wider margin than in two other recent surveys.
Support our journalism. Subscribe today. arrow-right
McAuliffe leads Youngkin 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in a poll released Thursday by AARP-Virginia and the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University, with 6 percent undecided. His lead exceeds the survey’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
McAuliffe, a veteran fundraiser and former Democratic National Committee chairman, is seeking a comeback to the Executive Mansion he occupied from 2014 to 2018, while Youngkin, a former private equity executive, is making his first run for public office. They are vying to succeed Gov. Ralph Northam (D), whom the state constitution bars from serving back-to-back terms.
What to know about the 2021 Virginia governor’s race
The race is drawing national money and attention as an early referendum on President Biden and potential preview of the 2021 congressional midterms.
Advertisement
Story continues below advertisement
The election also will test Democrats’ grip on the state, a longtime Republican stronghold that steadily turned purple amid demographic shifts and then solidly blue after the election of President Donald Trump. Over the past four years, the state’s suburban swing voters abandoned the GOP, allowing Democrats to take control of the state House and Senate, hold the Executive Mansion, and flip three congressional seats.
Between the GOP and the governor’s mansion: A bigger, bluer Northern Virginia
The outcome of the race is expected to hinge largely on whether the anti-Trump backlash remains a force now that he’s out of the White House.
McAuliffe has sought to play up Youngkin’s praise for Trump’s economic policies and willingness to give a wink to Trump’s false claim that Democrats stole the 2020 election by making “election integrity” a central campaign theme. Youngkin’s campaign is betting that voters are ready to rebel against Democrats now that they’re in power in Richmond and Washington.
In a shift, GOP nominee for Va. governor admits Biden ‘legitimately’ elected
“These numbers reflect a state that continues to trend blue in presidential and statewide elections as demographic shifts endure in the Commonwealth,” said Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, research director at the Wason Center. “While there is still room for movement in the race, Youngkin has a tightrope to walk between Trump supporters and more moderate voters across the suburbs of Virginia.”
Terry McAuliffe, in announcing bid for Virginia governor, focuses on education while nodding to Democrats’ leftward shift
Two other recent polls suggested a tighter race. A Virginia Commonwealth University released Friday found McAuliffe leading 40 percent to 37 percent, within the margin of error of plus or minus 5.1？percentage points. A Roanoke College poll also released Friday finds McAuliffe leading 46 percent to 38 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2？percentage points.
Advertisement
Story continues below advertisement
The Wason Center poll finds McAuliffe’s support is especially strong with women (55 percent to 36 percent) and younger voters (52 percent to 34 percent).
Political newcomer with the means to self-fund to enter race for Virginia governor
Youngkin runs strongest in rural Southside and Southwest Virginia (53 percent to 37 percent), while McAuliffe performs best in suburban Northern Virginia (59 percent to 33 percent), the Richmond area (48 percent to 40 percent) and the Hampton Roads region (52 percent to 41 percent), according to the Watson poll.
The poll finds 6 percent of likely voters are undecided and three percent support third-party candidate Princess Blanding.
In the race for Attorney General, incumbent Mark R. Herring (D), who is seeking a third term, leads Del. Jason S. Miyares (R-Virginia Beach) 53 percent to 41 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Story continues below advertisement
Del. Hala S. Ayala (D-Prince William) leads former Republican delegate Winsome E. Sears in the race for lieutenant governor 52 percent to 42 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Advertisement
Also on the ballot this year are all 100 seats in the House of Delegates, where Democrats have a 55 to 45 seat majority. Asked about the House races, 50 percent of likely voters said they would support a Democrat and 43 percent said they would support a Republican.
The poll, conducted Aug. 15 through Aug. 23, is based on 800 interviews of likely voters.
Scott Clement contributed to this report.
National Republican group launches TV ad campaign aimed at flipping Virginia House seats
Conservative Bill Kristol endorses McAuliffe in race for Virginia governor
Virginia’s bipartisan redistricting commission struggling with partisan pressures