The Batley and Spen by-election has been one of the most keenly anticipated for years, with speculation swirling around a possible challenge to Sir Keir Starmer's leadership if Labour loses its second seat to the government since he took over.

       We will know the result on Friday morning, and whatever it is, it is likely to have a big impact. If Labour do lose, the questions about Sir Keir's position will become more persistent. While a leadership election seems unlikely – it would need 40 MPs to back a single alternative candidate – the unhappiness in the party will intensify.

       A poll of Labour Party members yesterday found that 69 per cent thought Andy Burnham, the mayor of Manchester, would do a better job as leader than Sir Keir, and defeat in Batley and Spen will do nothing to reduce that number.

       There could, however, be different degrees of defeat, ranging from a close fight fought well by Kim Leadbeater – a stronger candidate than Paul Williams in Hartlepool – to the disaster of Labour coming third to George Galloway, the anti-Starmer spoiler candidate who has campaigned ruthlessly, especially among Muslim voters, who make up one in five of the constituency's electorate.

       Recommended Batley and Spen by-election: Voting opens as Keir Starmer faces critical test What will happen if Labour loses the Batley and Spen by-election?

       Of course, the best result for Sir Keir would be for Labour to hold the seat, which really would be a sensational upset; that fact alone tells you how politics has been turned upside down.

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       However, I suspect that suggestions from Labour sources today that they think they might just “edge it” are designed to get journalists talking about whether Labour really can win instead of talking about his leadership.

       The speculation has become a feedback loop of negativity that is damaging Sir Keir, even though the chances of an actual contest are low.

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