Lockdown restrictions may have to be reimposed in the autumn, as the reopening of society on Monday leads to a “long and drawn-out” third wave of coronavirus, Boris Johnson has been warned.
A member of the government’s Sage scientific advisory committee, John Edmunds, said that the removal of restrictions in England on 19 July will delay the moment at which the wave reaches its peak and starts to subside.
And former health secretary Jeremy Hunt warned that the government must be ready to “change direction” and bring back curbs to social and economic life if infections continue at record rates of 100,000 a day or more.
Warning lights on the NHS are already “flashing red” with Covid hospital patients doubling every two weeks and predicted to reach 10,000 by the end of August, at a time when the service is struggling to make a dent in the massive backlog of patients awaiting treatment for other conditions, Mr Hunt told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.
If infections remain high as schools return in September, the government will have to “reconsider some very difficult decisions” about restoring restrictions, he said.
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His comments came after chief medical officer Chris Whitty warned that England “could get into trouble again surprisingly fast”, with the potential for a “scary” rise in hospitalisations.
With daily infections already above 50,000 two days before step 4 of Mr Johnson’s roadmap out of lockdown, epidemiologist Edmunds told Today that within the next two weeks numbers can be expected to hit 100,000 - well above the record peak reached in January.
The absence of lockdown curbs means that, rather than the relatively rapid decline in infections seen after previous peaks, the UK is facing a “higher level of incidence for a protracted period right through the summer and probably through much of the autumn,” warned Prof Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
“We didn’t ease up restrictions after having vaccinated everybody,” he said. “We did it the other way - we started easing restrictions before everybody was vaccinated.
“That’s going to lead to infections in the unvaccinated people, primarily younger individuals. It’s inevitable that that was going to happen.”
Mr Hunt said: “The warning light on the NHS dashboard is not flashing amber, it’s flashing red. Covid hospital patients are doubling every two weeks and, according to the Health Service Journal, that means that we are heading for about 10,000 Covid hospital patients by the end of August, which is about 20 times higher than this time last year.
“And on top of that, of course, you’ve got the Covid backlog where, for the first time in two decades, we’re seeing lots of people waiting two years for operations. So it’s a very serious situation.”
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UK news in pictures 16 July 2021 The sun rises behind the Sefton Park Palm House, in Sefton Park, Liverpool
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UK news in pictures 15 July 2021 Sir Nicholas Serota watches a short film about sea monsters as he opens a ￡7.6 million, 360 immersive dome at Devonport's Market Hall in Plymouth, which is the first of its type to be built in Europe
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UK news in pictures 14 July 2021 Heidi Street, playing a gothic character, looks at a brain suspended in glass at the world’s first attraction dedicated to the author of Frankenstein inside the ‘Mary Shelley’s House of Frankenstein’ experience, located in a Georgian terraced house in Bath, as it prepares to open to the public on 19 July
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UK news in pictures 13 July 2021 Rehearsals are held in a car park in Glasgow for a parade scene ahead of filming for what is thought to be the new Indiana Jones 5 movie starring Harrison Ford
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UK news in pictures 12 July 2021 A local resident puts love hearts and slogans on the plastic that covers offensive graffiti on the vandalised mural of Manchester United striker and England player Marcus Rashford on the wall of a cafe on Copson Street, Withington in Manchester
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UK news in pictures 11 July 2021 England's Bukayo Saka with manager Gareth Southgate after the match
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UK news in pictures 10 July 2021 Australia’s Ashleigh Barty holds the trophy after winning her final Wimbledon match against Czech Republic’s Karolina Pliskova
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UK news in pictures 9 July 2021 England 1966 World Cup winner Sir Geoff Hurst stands on top of a pod on the lastminute.com London Eye wearing a replica 1966 World Cup final kit and looking out towards Wembley Stadium in the north of the capital, where the England football team will play Italy in the Euro 2020 final on Sunday
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UK news in pictures 8 July 2021 Karolina Pliskova celebrates after defeating Aryna Sabalenka during the women's singles semifinals match on day ten of the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in London
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UK news in pictures 7 July 2021 The residents of Towfield Court in Feltham have transformed their estate with England flags for the Euro 2020 tournament
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UK news in pictures 6 July 2021 A couple are hit by a wave as they walk along the promenade in Dover, Kent, during strong winds
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UK news in pictures 5 July 2021 Alexander Zverev playing against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round of the Gentlemen's Singles on Court 1 on day seven of Wimbledon at The All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
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UK news in pictures 4 July 2021 Aaron Carty and the Beyoncé Experience perform on stage during UK Black Pride at The Roundhouse in London
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UK news in pictures 3 July 2021 England’s Jordan Henderson celebrates after scoring his first international goal, his side’s fourth against Ukraine during the Euro 2020 quarter final match at the Olympic stadium in Rome
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UK news in pictures 2 July 2021 Dan Evans serves against Sebastian Korda during their men’s singles third round match at Wimbledon
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UK news in pictures 1 July 2021 Prince William, left and Prince Harry unveil a statue they commissioned of their mother Princess Diana, on what would have been her 60th birthday, in the Sunken Garden at Kensington Palace, London
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UK news in pictures 30 June 2021 Dancers from the Billingham Festival and Balbir Singh Dance Company, during a preview for the The Two Fridas, UK Summer tour, presented by Billingham International Folklore Festival of World Dance in collaboration with Balbir Singh Dance Company, inspired by the life and times of female artists Frida Kahlo and Amrita Sher-Gil , which opens on July 10 at Ushaw Historic House, Chapel and Gardens in Durham
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UK news in pictures 29 June 2021 A boy kicks a soccer ball in front of the balconies and landings adorned with predominantly England flags at the Kirby housing estate in London
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UK news in pictures 28 June 2021 Emergency services attend a fire nearby the Elephant & Castle Rail Station in London
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UK news in pictures 27 June 2021 People walk along Regent Street in central London during a #FreedomToDance march organised by Save Our Scene, in protest against the government’s perceived disregard for the live music industry throughout the coronavirus pandemic
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UK news in pictures 26 June 2021 A pair of marchers in a Trans Pride rally share a smile in Soho
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UK news in pictures 25 June 2021 Tim Duckworth during the Long Jump in the decathlon during day one of the Muller British Athletics Championships at Manchester Regional Arena
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UK news in pictures 24 June 2021 A member of staff poses with the work 'The Death of Cash' by XCopy at the 'CryptOGs: The Pioneers of NFT Art' auction at Bonhams auction house in London
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UK news in pictures 23 June 2021 Bank of England Chief Cashier Sarah John displays the new 50-pound banknote at Daunt Books in London
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UK news in pictures 22 June 2021 Actor Isaac Hampstead Wright sits on the newly unveiled Game of Throne's "Iron Throne" statue, in Leicester Square, in London, Tuesday, June 22, 2021. The statue is the tenth to join the trail and commemorates 10 years since the TV show first aired, as well as in anticipation for HBO's release of House of the Dragon set to be released in 2022
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UK news in pictures 21 June 2021 Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon receives her second dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine
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UK news in pictures 20 June 2021 Joyce Paton, from Peterhead, on one of the remaining snow patches on Meall a’Bhuiridh in Glencoe during the Midsummer Ski. The event, organised by the Glencoe Mountain Resort, is held every year on the weekend closest to the Summer Solstice
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UK news in pictures 19 June 2021 England appeal LBW during day four of their Women’s International Test match against India at the Bristol County Ground
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UK news in pictures 18 June 2021 Scotland fans let off flares in Leicester Square after Scotland's Euro 2020 match against England ended in a 0-0 draw
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UK news in pictures 17 June 2021 Members of the Tootsie Rollers jazz band pose on the third day of the Royal Ascot horse racing meet
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UK news in pictures 16 June 2021 A woman and child examine life-size sculptures of a herd of Asian elephants set up by the Elephant Family and The Real Elephant Collective to help educate the public on the elephants and the ways in which humans can better protect the planets biodiversity, in Green Park, central London
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UK news in pictures 15 June 2021 Hydrotherapists with Dixie, a seven-year-old Dachshund who is being treated for back problems common with the breed, in the hydrotherapy pool during a facility at Battersea Dogs and Cats Home's in Battersea, London, to view their new hydrotherapy centre
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UK news in pictures 14 June 2021 Scotland's David Marshall in the net after Czech Republic's Patrik Schick scored their second goal at Hampden Park
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UK news in pictures 13 June 2021 Raheem Sterling celebrates with Harry Kane after scoring England’s first goal of the Euro 2021 tournament in a match against Croatia at Wembley
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UK news in pictures 12 June 2021 Oxfam campaigners wearing costumes depicting G7 leaders pose for photographers on Swanpool Beach near Falmouth, Cornwall
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UK news in pictures 11 June 2021 Members of the Vaxinol team, who are commercial, industrial and residential cleaners specialising in disinfection and decontamination, use electrostatic spray systems to deep clean the Only Fools Bar in Liverpool
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UK news in pictures 10 June 2021 A woman walks her dogs as the incoming tide begins to wash away the heads of G7 leaders drawn in the sand by activists on the beach at Newquay, Cornwall
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UK news in pictures 9 June 2021 Adam Chamberlain, 45, general manager of Big Tree pub in Sheffield, has put up over 500 flags, taking 36 hours, in preparation for Euro 2020, which kicks off this weekend
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UK news in pictures 8 June 2021
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UK news in pictures 7 June 2021 A pedestrian wearing a face covering walks over Westminster Bridge near the Houses of Parliament in central London
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UK news in pictures 6 June 2021 Isobel Salamon, founder of the Edinburgh Cinema Club, poses alongside the Leith Trainspotting murals in Quality Yard, Leith, Edinburgh, for the programme launch of the Cinescapes Festival which starts on July 4 with a Trainspotting 1 and 2 double bill
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UK news in pictures 5 June 2021 A long exposure photograph captures the rotation of the earth as the stars blur into circles over Knowlton church ruins in Dorset
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UK news in pictures 4 June 2021 Balloonists take flight during the opening of the Midlands Air Festival in Alcester, Warwickshire
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UK news in pictures 3 June 2021 Members of the Household Cavalry during the Major General's annual inspection of the Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment in Hyde Park, London
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UK news in pictures 2 June 2021 Hannah Vitos of the Blenheim Art Foundation, poses for a photograph next to artist Ai Weiwei's Gilded Cage (2017) sculpture in the grounds of Blenheim Palace in Woodstock, Britain
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UK news in pictures 1 June 2021 People swim in the Sky Pool, a transparent swimming pool bridge across two exclusive residential blocks standing next to the US Embassy in Nine Elms, in London, Tuesday, June 1, 2021
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UK news in pictures 31 May 2021 People enjoy the hot weather at Brighton beach
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UK news in pictures 30 May 2021 People venture into the sea as they enjoy themselves during a hot day on Brighton Beach
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UK news in pictures 29 May 2021 Swimmers at the Stonehaven Open Air Pool in Aberdeenshire, which reopens after lockdown restrictions were eased
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UK news in pictures 28 May 2021 Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson gestures as he meets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at Downing Street in London
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The experience of countries like the Netherlands and Israel, which lifted restrictions after successful vaccination campaigns but are now considering returning to lockdown amid rising case rates, made clear that the onus is on the public to use its new freedoms responsibly over the coming weeks, said Mr Hunt.
“If we behave like they have done and change our behaviour too dramatically when the restrictions are changed, then we are going to end up having to do what they are doing now, which is reconsider reimposing restrictions,” said the Commons Health Committee chair. “So a lot depends on our behaviour over the next couple of weeks.”
There was little prospect of the reversal of moves out of lockdown during August, because transmission will naturally be limited by the fact that schools are closed and people will spend much of the time outdoors, he said.
But he added: “Coming into September we’re almost certainly going to see infections reach a new daily peak going above the 68,000 daily level which was the previous record in January.
“It will depend on what they’re doing when we come towards the end of the month. If they start to tail off and go down again then we hopefully can stay on the current trajectory.” but if they’re still going up as the schools are coming back, then I think we are going to have to reconsider some very difficult decisions.”
Mr Hunt said the “herd immunity” offered by vaccinations and previous infections made him “hopeful” that a new lockdown can be avoided. But he added: “There is a lot of uncertainty, which is why it’s very important that the government is willing to change direction if that’s what the data says we have to do.”
Meanwhile, a senior union official accused the government of approaching the reopening of the economy “through the prism of politics, rather than pragmatic common sense action”.
Paul Nowak, deputy general secretary of the TUC, told BBC Breakfast: “What we’ve seen is strong workplace guidance - that unions and employers helped shape - that’s kept millions of people safe during the course of last year, replaced by vague exhortations, recommendations, guidelines.
“I think it poses more questions for employers than it provides answers.”