Ministers have been warned that without new measures to damp down Covid-19 infections, hospital admissions could soon soar beyond the peak seen at the start of 2021 to as many as 7,000 a day.
And chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty said that the NHS could get into trouble in its first winter with the Delta variant, even without the emergence of a new coronavirus strain with resistance to vaccines.
The warnings came as Boris Johnson said he was “confident” that the UK could get through the autumn and winter without the return of lockdown restrictions – though he set out a “plan B” which could see mandatory face masks, Covid passports and guidance to work from home reintroduced in the case of an upsurge in cases, admissions and deaths.
One expert warned that, with positive cases currently running at around eight times higher than at this time last year, any delay in imposing new measures could make it “impossible to close the stable door before the horse bolts”.
And a poll by Savanta ComRes suggested that the public is ready for tough action to clamp down on the current resurgence in the disease, with 51 per cent saying they would back a two-week “firebreak” lockdown in October to stop cases rising from their current level.
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Mr Johnson unveiled the government’s winter plan for coronavirus shortly after scientific advisers gave the green light to the blanket vaccination of teenagers aged 12 to 15 along with booster jabs for over-50s, whose protection may be waning after as long as nine months since their second dose.
In a Downing Street press conference, the prime minister left no doubt that the vaccine was now at the heart of his plan to keep the virus under control, urging those who have been “apathetic” about coming forward for their shot to do so now.
UK news in pictures Show all 50
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UK news in pictures 14 September 2021 Heavy rain covers the A149 near Kings Lynn in Norfolk
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UK news in pictures 13 September 2021 Luke Jerram's 'Museum of the Moon' at Durham Cathedral
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UK news in pictures 12 September 2021 Inspirational young fundraiser Tobias Weller crosses the finish line, near his home in Sheffield, as he completes his latest epic feat where he swam and triked his way to the end of his “awesome” year-long Ironman Challenge. This is the third challenge Tobias, who has cerebral palsy and autism, has completed, raising more than ￡150,000 for his school and Sheffield Children Hospital’s charity
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UK news in pictures 11 September 2021 British player Emma Raducanu, holds up the US Open championship trophy winning the women's singles final of the US Open in New York
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UK news in pictures 10 September 2021 People paddle board during a misty morning in Ullswater, the second largest lake in the Lake District, Cumbria
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UK news in pictures 9 September 2021 Troops from Wiltshire based 4 Armoured Close Support Battalion Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers during final inspection at Wellington Barracks in London, ahead of providing troops for the Queen’s Guard
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UK news in pictures 8 September 2021 Workers cross London Bridge during the morning rush hour in London
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UK news in pictures Mixing it up: Painting it up press view in London A gallery employee poses for photographers next to a painting entitled “Prairie” by British artist, Louise Giovanelli during the exhibition 'Mixing it up: Painting it up' at the Hayward Gallery in London
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UK news in pictures 6 September 2021 Traders in the Ring at the London Metal Exchange, in the City of London, after open-outcry trading returned for the first time since March 2020, when the Ring was temporarily closed due to the pandemic
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UK news in pictures 5 September 2021 People enjoy the warm weather on Sandbanks beach, Poole
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UK news in pictures 4 September 2021 Demonstrators from Animal Rebellion and Nature Rebellion protest in Trafalgar Square in London.
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UK news in pictures 3 September 2021 South Africa's Ntando Mahlangu (centre) wins the Men's 200 metres T61 Final ahead of second placed Great Britain's Richard Whitehead at the Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games
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UK news in pictures 2 September 2021 A young common seal on the beach at Horsey Gap in Norfolk, as hundreds of pregnant grey seals come ashore ready for the start of the pupping season.
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UK news in pictures 1 September 2021 Goldfinches fighting over food in a garden in Strensham, Worcestershire
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UK news in pictures 31 August 2021 Gold Medallist Sarah Storey of Britain celebrates on the podium
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UK news in pictures 30 August 2021 Extinction Rebellion protesters hold a a tea party on Tower Bridge in London
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UK news in pictures 29 August 2021 A police office tussles with a demonstrator on Cromwell Road outside the Natural History Museum during a protest by members of Extinction Rebellion in London
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UK news in pictures 28 August 2021 Members of the British armed forces 16 Air Assault Brigade walk to the air terminal after disembarking a Royal Airforce Voyager aircraft at Brize Norton, Oxfordshire
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UK news in pictures 27 August 2021 Fabio Quartararo crashes during a MotoGP practice session at the British Grand Prix, Silverstone Circuit
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UK news in pictures 26 August 2021 An Extinction Rebellion activist holds a placard in a fountain surrounded by police officers, during a protest next to Buckingham Palace in London
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UK news in pictures 25 August 2021 Gold Medallist Great Britain’s cyclist, Sarah Storey, celebrates after winning the Women’s C5 3000m Individual Pursuit Final at the Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games. It was her 15th Paralympic gold
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UK news in pictures 24 August 2021 A demonstrator dressed as bee during a protest by members of Extinction Rebellion on Whitehall, in central London
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UK news in pictures 23 August 2021 Former interpreters for the British forces in Afghanistan demonstrate outside the Home Office in central London
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UK news in pictures 22 August 2021 Police officers form a line in front of the entrance to the Guildhall, London, where protesters have climbed onto a ledge above the entrance during an Extinction Rebellion stage a protest
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UK news in pictures 21 August 2021 People take part in a demonstration in solidarity with people of Afghanistan, in London
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UK news in pictures 20 August 2021 People zip wire across the sea from Bournemouth pier towards the beach.
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UK news in pictures 19 August 2021 Supporters of Geronimo the alpaca gather outside Shepherds Close Farm in Wooton Under Edge, Gloucestershire
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UK news in pictures 18 August 2021 Former Afghan interpreters and veterans hold a demonstration outside Downing Street, calling for support and protection for Afghan interpreters and their families
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UK news in pictures 17 August 2021 Military personnel board the RAF Airbus A400M at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire, where evacuation flights from Afghanistan have been landing
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UK news in pictures 16 August 2021 Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer takes part in a minute's silence at Wolverhampton police station for the victims of the Plymouth mass shooting last week
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UK news in pictures 15 August 2021 2Storm, a ten-metre tall puppet of a mythical goddess of the sea created by Edinburgh-based visual theatre company Vision Mechanics, makes its way alongside the seafront at North Berwick, East Lothian, during a performance at the Fringe By The Sea festival
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UK news in pictures 14 August 2021 A woman and two young girls look at floral tributes in Plymouth where six people, including the offender, died of gunshot wounds in a firearms incident
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UK news in pictures 13 August 2021 Forensic officers in the Keyham area of Plymouth where six people, including the shooter, died of gunshot wounds in a firearms incident on Thursday evening
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UK news in pictures 12 August 2021 Children ride horses in the River Eden in Appleby, Cumbria, during the annual gathering of travellers for the Appleby Horse Fair
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UK news in pictures 11 August 2021 Stella Moris (left) reacts after talking to the media outside the High Court in London, following the first hearing in the Julian Assange extradition appeal, n London, following the first hearing in the Julian Assange extradition appeal. The US government has won the latest round in its High Court bid to appeal against the decision not to extradite Julian Assange on espionage charges
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UK news in pictures 10 August 2021 Students react after they receive their A-Level results at the Ark Academy, in London
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UK news in pictures 9 August 2021 The final athletes from Great Britain arrive home including Jason Kenny, Laura Kenny and Katie Archibald (front left-right) at Heathrow Airport, London following the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games
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UK news in pictures 8 August 2021 Great Britain's Laura Kenny during the closing ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games at the Olympic stadium in Japan
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UK news in pictures 7 August 2021 People from the Glasgow Southside community take part in the Govanhill Carnival, an anti-racist celebration of pride, unity and the contributions immigrants have made to the community in Govanhill, at Queen's Park, Glasgow
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UK news in pictures 6 August 2021 Chijindu Ujah of Britain, Zharnel Hughes of Britain, Richard Kilty of Britain and Nethaneel Mitchell-Blake of Britain celebrate winning silver as they pose with Asha Philip of Britain, Imani Lansiquot of Britain, Dina Asher-Smith of Britain and Daryll Neita of Britain after they won bronze in the women's 4 x 100m relay during Olympic Games Day 14
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UK news in pictures 5 August 2021 A protester places flowers on a photograph of an executed man during a demonstration organised by supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) to protest against the inauguration of Iran's new president Ebrahim Raisi in central London
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UK news in pictures 4 August 2021 England's Joe Root looks on as India's KL Rahul doesn't make it to a catch during day one of Cinch First Test match at Trent Bridge, Nottingham
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UK news in pictures 3 August 2021 Great Britain's Laura Kenny and Jason Kenny with their silver medals for the Women's Team Pursuit and Men’s Team Sprint during the Track Cycling at the Izu Velodrome on the eleventh day of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games in Japan
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UK news in pictures 2 August 2021 Great Britain’s Charlotte Worthington competes during the Women’s BMX Freestyle Final at the Tokyo Olympics
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UK news in pictures 1 August 2021
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UK news in pictures 31 July 2021 James Guy, Adam Peaty and Kathleen Dawson celebrate winning the gold medal in the mixed 4x100m medley relay final at the Tokyo Olympics
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UK news in pictures 30 July 2021 Great Britain's Bethany Shriever and Kye Whyte celebrate their Gold and Silver medals respectively for the Cycling BMX Racing at the Ariake Urban Sports Park on the seventh day of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games in Japan
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UK news in pictures 29 July 2021 Team GB's Mallory Franklin during the Women’s Canoe Slalom Final on day six of the Tokyo Olympic Games. She went on to win the silver medal
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UK news in pictures 28 July 2021 Canoers on Llyn Padarn lake in Snowdonia, Gwynedd. It was announced that the north-west Wales slate landscape has been granted UNESCO World Heritage Status
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UK news in pictures 27 July 2021 A view of one of two areas now being used at a warehouse facility in Dover, Kent, for boats used by people thought to be migrants.
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He made clear he hopes to avoid the limited restrictions contained in his plan B. If necessary, they would be introduced in a “graduated” way and not necessarily at the same time, he said, arguing: “We’re now in a situation when, because so many of the population have some degree of immunity, smaller changes in the way we’re asking people to behave can have a bigger impact.”
The objective of the winter plan was to “prevent the overwhelming of the NHS” while preserving the freedoms needed to boost economic growth and jobs, he said.
But Prof Whitty stressed that the NHS was already under pressure, which was likely to worsen as students go back to schools and universities, more people return to the office, and winter brings the usual seasonal wave of infectious diseases such as flu.
“We have not faced a winter with the Delta variant,” said the chief medical officer.
“So it is possible that the combination of winter events, plus the Delta variant, which is highly transmissible, could lead to a situation where, on the basis of the data, ministers decide that they want to trigger all or some of the plan B.”
And chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said that any tightening of restrictions would have to be done quickly to be effective.
Warning that the pandemic is currently at a “pivot point”, Sir Patrick said that if the situation worsens, ministers must “go early” with restrictions.
“You have to go earlier than you want to, you have to go harder than you think you want to,” he told the press conference.
They were speaking shortly after the release of minutes from a meeting on 8 September of modellers from the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage), who warned that hospitalisations could rise within weeks from the current 1,000 to between 2,000 and 7,000 a day – potentially outstripping the 4,500 daily admissions that placed intense pressure on NHS capacity during the period of harsh lockdown restrictions in January.
The modelling sub-group warned of “the potential for another large wave of hospitalisations” driven by the winding down of work-from-home practices, which have played “a very important role in preventing sustained epidemic growth in recent months”.
The current levels of high prevalence, combined with seasonal pressures and behaviour changes as society reopens, could mean “a very difficult winter ahead” for the NHS, the group said.
The latest official figures showed 185 deaths, 1,009 hospital admissions and 26,628 positive tests reported on 14 September.
While the rate of reproduction of the disease – the R rate – is now around 0.9 to 1.1 in England, the return to schools and offices could mean the rate being increased to as much as 1.5, translating to 7,000 or more hospital admissions a day by mid-October, said the group.
A “basket of measures” such as mandatory face masks, Covid passes and encouraging homeworking would be sufficient to keep the epidemic flat if enacted while hospitalisations remain at a “manageable” level, said the group.
But it warned that if their introduction was delayed until admission numbers were rising fast, “much more stringent – and therefore more disruptive – measures would be needed to bring prevalence down quickly”.
Microbiologist Simon Clarke, associate professor at the University of Reading, said that the government was once again relying on the public to limit its own interactions before enforcing regulations, a strategy which had failed to prevent earlier spikes in the disease.
“These measures have been a poor way of controlling the coronavirus because by the time they’ve been imposed, it’s always been too late and the virus is so common in society that it takes a long time to get back under control,” said Dr Clarke. “With such very high numbers of community infections, things could get out of hand very quickly and it may prove impossible to close the stable door before the horse bolts.”
Prof Whitty took a swipe at anti-vaxxers, such as singer Nicki Minaj, who spread false rumours about the supposed dangers of the vaccine.
He said it was “depressing” to see unvaccinated people ending up seriously ill when the protection offered by the jab was so clear.
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“If you just do a very crude look at the numbers, someone who is in their 30s and unvaccinated is running about the same risk as someone in their 70s who is vaccinated,” said Prof Whitty. “It’s that level of difference.
“One of the most depressing things for doctors, including myself, is talking to people who have just chosen not to get vaccinated because it wasn’t convenient at that particular moment, and you see them being wheeled down to intensive care, and you know this was a very serious problem as a result of them not being vaccinated.”