In a fresh setback for Keir Starmer as Labour’s annual conference gets under way in Brighton, a poll for The Independent has found that Andy Burnham is the preferred choice as leader, not only of voters in general but also among the party’s own supporters.
The exclusive Savanta ComRes poll for The Independent found despondency among Labour supporters about the chances of election victory under Starmer’s leadership and uncertainty among voters about who he is as a person and what direction he wants to take the country.
The findings will intensify pressure on Starmer this week to show he can make a breakthrough with the electorate in time for a general election, which is expected in 2023.
It sets up his keynote speech on Wednesday as a make-or-break moment to boost his own personal appeal to voters and set out a compelling case for Labour or face escalating calls for his replacement by someone better able to oust Boris Johnson’s Conservatives from power.
Mr Burnham is not currently eligible to stand for leader, as he is not an MP. But the Greater Manchester mayor has not given up hopes of another bid for the top job, saying after Labour’s dismal showing in local elections in May that “if the party were ever to feel it needed me, I’m here and they should get in touch”.
Recommended Reshuffle in full: Who is out and who has been promoted? Boris Johnson flexes muscles with cabinet shake-up for post-Covid era PM won’t say how Universal Credit claimants can recoup lost ￡20-a-week
The exclusive Savanta ComRes poll for The Independent on the eve of the Brighton gathering found that Mr Burnham was top choice for Labour leader for 19 per cent of voters, against 14 per cent who plumped for Starmer and 7 per cent for London mayor Sadiq Khan.
Among those who voted Labour in 2019, Mr Burnham’s popularity rose to 25 per cent, against 22 per cent for Sir Keir and 8 per cent for Mr Khan. Left-wing alternatives performed poorly, with just 4 per cent of Labour supporters wanting the leadership to go to either deputy Angela Rayner or former shadow chancellor John McDonnell and 3 per cent to Rebecca Long-Bailey, who was defeated by Starmer in lasts year’s contest to succeed Jeremy Corbyn.
A majority of voters thought Labour was unlikely to win the next election under Starmer’s leadership – with 24 per cent rating it “not at all likely” and 31 per cent “not likely”, against 18 per cent who said a Labour victory was “likely” and 10 per cent “very likely”. Even among Labour supporters, the proportion thinking Starmer could win a the next election, at 44 per cent, only marginally exceeded the 42 per cent who said he was not likely to.
UK news in pictures Show all 50
1/50UK news in pictures
UK news in pictures 25 September 2021 Scottish pro-independence supporters hold a march and rally outside the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, Scotland
Getty Images
UK news in pictures 24 September 2021 Police officers remove two protesters from the top of a tanker, as Insulate Britain block the A20 in Kent, which provides access to the Port of Dover in Kent. The environmental activists have moved location after been banned from campaigning on the M25 motorway in London
PA
UK news in pictures 23 September 2021 Gabriella, the seven year old daughter of imprisoned British-Iranian Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, joins in a game on a giant snakes and ladders board in Parliament Square, to show the “ups and downs” of her mother’s case to mark the 2,000 days she has been detained in Iran
AP
UK news in pictures 22 September 2021 A new sign hangs on the Millicent Fawcett statue after it was altered by ‘CrackTheCrises’ coalition activists to highlight the climate crisis as a feminist struggle in Parliament Square in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 21 September 2021 Gabriella Diment prepares a monumental bronze patinated fibreglass wall sculpture depicting household cavalry soldiers on horseback which is expected to be sold for ￡12,000-18,000 when it goes up for auction at Summers Place Auctions in Billinghurst, Kent
PA
UK news in pictures 20 September 2021 Florist Judith Blacklock puts the finishing touches to a floral carousel installation in Halkin Arcade, which she has designed with Neill Strain for the Belgravia in Bloom festival, running from September 20-26, in London
PA
UK news in pictures 19 September 2021 Bubbles surround Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo before the match against West Ham at London Stadium
Action Images/Reuters
UK news in pictures 18 September 2021 Children take part in the Settrington Cup Pedal Car Race as motoring enthusiasts attend the Goodwood Revival, a three-day historic car racing festival in Goodwood, Chichester,
Reuters
UK news in pictures 17 September 2021 Hugo, 7, from London rides past a 4x7 metre rainbow arch, made entirely of recycled aluminium cans, which has been installed by recycling initiative 'Every Can Counts', in partnership with The City of London Corporation in front of St Paul's Cathedral in London, to encourage members of the public to recycle their drinks cans ahead of recycling week, which starts on 20 September
PA
UK news in pictures 16 September 2021 Sheikeh MOhammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, leader of Abu Dhabi, leaves Downing Street after meeting with Boris Johnson
PA
UK news in pictures 15 September 2021 Children pose by ice sculptures depicting people collecting water by charity Water Aid to show the fragility of water and the threat posed by climate change in London
AFP/Getty
UK news in pictures 14 September 2021 Heavy rain covers the A149 near Kings Lynn in Norfolk
PA
UK news in pictures 13 September 2021 Luke Jerram's 'Museum of the Moon' at Durham Cathedral
PA
UK news in pictures 12 September 2021 Inspirational young fundraiser Tobias Weller crosses the finish line, near his home in Sheffield, as he completes his latest epic feat where he swam and triked his way to the end of his “awesome” year-long Ironman Challenge. This is the third challenge Tobias, who has cerebral palsy and autism, has completed, raising more than ￡150,000 for his school and Sheffield Children Hospital’s charity
PA
UK news in pictures 11 September 2021 British player Emma Raducanu, holds up the US Open championship trophy winning the women's singles final of the US Open in New York
AP
UK news in pictures 10 September 2021 People paddle board during a misty morning in Ullswater, the second largest lake in the Lake District, Cumbria
PA
UK news in pictures 9 September 2021 Troops from Wiltshire based 4 Armoured Close Support Battalion Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers during final inspection at Wellington Barracks in London, ahead of providing troops for the Queen’s Guard
PA
UK news in pictures 8 September 2021 Workers cross London Bridge during the morning rush hour in London
Reuters
UK news in pictures Mixing it up: Painting it up press view in London A gallery employee poses for photographers next to a painting entitled “Prairie” by British artist, Louise Giovanelli during the exhibition 'Mixing it up: Painting it up' at the Hayward Gallery in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 6 September 2021 Traders in the Ring at the London Metal Exchange, in the City of London, after open-outcry trading returned for the first time since March 2020, when the Ring was temporarily closed due to the pandemic
PA
UK news in pictures 5 September 2021 People enjoy the warm weather on Sandbanks beach, Poole
PA
UK news in pictures 4 September 2021 Demonstrators from Animal Rebellion and Nature Rebellion protest in Trafalgar Square in London.
PA
UK news in pictures 3 September 2021 South Africa's Ntando Mahlangu (centre) wins the Men's 200 metres T61 Final ahead of second placed Great Britain's Richard Whitehead at the Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games
PA
UK news in pictures 2 September 2021 A young common seal on the beach at Horsey Gap in Norfolk, as hundreds of pregnant grey seals come ashore ready for the start of the pupping season.
PA
UK news in pictures 1 September 2021 Goldfinches fighting over food in a garden in Strensham, Worcestershire
PA
UK news in pictures 31 August 2021 Gold Medallist Sarah Storey of Britain celebrates on the podium
Reuters
UK news in pictures 30 August 2021 Extinction Rebellion protesters hold a a tea party on Tower Bridge in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 29 August 2021 A police office tussles with a demonstrator on Cromwell Road outside the Natural History Museum during a protest by members of Extinction Rebellion in London
PA
UK news in pictures 28 August 2021 Members of the British armed forces 16 Air Assault Brigade walk to the air terminal after disembarking a Royal Airforce Voyager aircraft at Brize Norton, Oxfordshire
POOL/AFP/Getty
UK news in pictures 27 August 2021 Fabio Quartararo crashes during a MotoGP practice session at the British Grand Prix, Silverstone Circuit
Action Images via Reuters
UK news in pictures 26 August 2021 An Extinction Rebellion activist holds a placard in a fountain surrounded by police officers, during a protest next to Buckingham Palace in London
Reuters
UK news in pictures 25 August 2021 Gold Medallist Great Britain’s cyclist, Sarah Storey, celebrates after winning the Women’s C5 3000m Individual Pursuit Final at the Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games. It was her 15th Paralympic gold
Reuters
UK news in pictures 24 August 2021 A demonstrator dressed as bee during a protest by members of Extinction Rebellion on Whitehall, in central London
PA
UK news in pictures 23 August 2021 Former interpreters for the British forces in Afghanistan demonstrate outside the Home Office in central London
AFP/Getty
UK news in pictures 22 August 2021 Police officers form a line in front of the entrance to the Guildhall, London, where protesters have climbed onto a ledge above the entrance during an Extinction Rebellion stage a protest
PA
UK news in pictures 21 August 2021 People take part in a demonstration in solidarity with people of Afghanistan, in London
Reuters
UK news in pictures 20 August 2021 People zip wire across the sea from Bournemouth pier towards the beach.
PA
UK news in pictures 19 August 2021 Supporters of Geronimo the alpaca gather outside Shepherds Close Farm in Wooton Under Edge, Gloucestershire
PA
UK news in pictures 18 August 2021 Former Afghan interpreters and veterans hold a demonstration outside Downing Street, calling for support and protection for Afghan interpreters and their families
PA
UK news in pictures 17 August 2021 Military personnel board the RAF Airbus A400M at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire, where evacuation flights from Afghanistan have been landing
Reuters
UK news in pictures 16 August 2021 Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer takes part in a minute's silence at Wolverhampton police station for the victims of the Plymouth mass shooting last week
PA
UK news in pictures 15 August 2021 2Storm, a ten-metre tall puppet of a mythical goddess of the sea created by Edinburgh-based visual theatre company Vision Mechanics, makes its way alongside the seafront at North Berwick, East Lothian, during a performance at the Fringe By The Sea festival
PA
UK news in pictures 14 August 2021 A woman and two young girls look at floral tributes in Plymouth where six people, including the offender, died of gunshot wounds in a firearms incident
PA
UK news in pictures 13 August 2021 Forensic officers in the Keyham area of Plymouth where six people, including the shooter, died of gunshot wounds in a firearms incident on Thursday evening
PA
UK news in pictures 12 August 2021 Children ride horses in the River Eden in Appleby, Cumbria, during the annual gathering of travellers for the Appleby Horse Fair
PA
UK news in pictures 11 August 2021 Stella Moris (left) reacts after talking to the media outside the High Court in London, following the first hearing in the Julian Assange extradition appeal, n London, following the first hearing in the Julian Assange extradition appeal. The US government has won the latest round in its High Court bid to appeal against the decision not to extradite Julian Assange on espionage charges
PA
UK news in pictures 10 August 2021 Students react after they receive their A-Level results at the Ark Academy, in London
Reuters
UK news in pictures 9 August 2021 The final athletes from Great Britain arrive home including Jason Kenny, Laura Kenny and Katie Archibald (front left-right) at Heathrow Airport, London following the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games
PA
UK news in pictures 8 August 2021 Great Britain's Laura Kenny during the closing ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games at the Olympic stadium in Japan
PA
UK news in pictures 7 August 2021 People from the Glasgow Southside community take part in the Govanhill Carnival, an anti-racist celebration of pride, unity and the contributions immigrants have made to the community in Govanhill, at Queen's Park, Glasgow
PA
The poll reflected Sir Keir’s long-standing inability to pull Labour clear of the Conservatives, despite the problems Boris Johnson’s party has faced with the Covid crisis, Brexit damage to business, soaring NHS waiting lists, empty supermarket shelves, rocketing energy prices and squabbling over Northern Ireland.
Recent surveys have seen Conservatives maintaining an average five-point lead over Labour, with a margin of advantage hovering around 40-35 per cent.
Meanwhile, Starmer’s personal ratings have plummeted, with people thinking he is doing a bad job outnumbering by three to one (59-20 per cent) those who say he is doing well at the end of last month, after level-pegging at the start of 2021.
Today’s poll found that a clear majority (51-28 per cent) felt he had failed to articulate a clear vision of where he wants to take the party since becoming leader in April 2020.
Just 31 per cent said Sir Keir had succeeded in making Labour ready for government, against 50 per cent who said he had not. Some 32 per cent said he had provided an effective opposition to Mr Johnson’s Tories, against 48 per cent who did not believe he had.
And just 36 per cent said he had been able to give voters a clear idea of who he is as a person, with 45 per cent saying that he had not.
Despite howls of protest from some parts of the Labour left about Sir Keir’s move away from the Corbyn agenda, voters were split over whether he had moved the party nearer to the centre ground of UK politics, with 38 per cent saying he had and 37 per cent disagreeing.
Asked to rate Starmer’s qualities against those of Mr Johnson, respondents in the poll found the Labour leader weaker, less inspiring and less patriotic than the prime minister. And a clear majority thought they would enjoy a drink with Johnson (55 per cent, against 45 per cent who would not) rather than Starmer (40-60 per cent).
In brighter findings for the Labour leader, he was rated more honest, more decisive and more statesmanlike than the PM. Some 55 per cent said he had good ideas for the country and 45 per cent that he did not, against a 50/50 split for Mr Johnson. More voters said Starmer had a clear vision for the country than Johnson.
And when asked if Starmer was able to understand the needs of ordinary people, 43 per cent said he could and 57 per cent that he could not, a far better split than the 36-64 per cent recorded for Johnson.
Labour was rated as having better policies than the Tories on health (35-27 per cent), social care (38-23), education (35-27), welfare (39-24), housing (37-23), pensions (33-25), gender equality (30-20), racial equality (31-21) and cultural issues (29-23).
But on some of the key issues on which the next election will be decided, Mr Johnson’s party maintained a clear lead, preferred over Labour on the economy by 34-27 per cent, on dealing with Covid by 31-25, on Brexit by 34-26, on law and order by 31-27 and on defence by 32-24 per cent.
？ Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,112 British adults between 17-19 September.