PETALING JAYA: Although the country has managed to keep test positivity rates and infectivity rates from surging higher, health experts say that vaccinations and following SOP are still key in the country’s exit from the Covid-19 pandemic.

       International Islamic University Malaysia epidemiologist Prof Dr Jamalludin Ab Rahman said it would take time to see dips in positivity rates from tightened Covid-19 restrictions.

       “The current figures may have yet to show the actual value due to the usual delay in testing and the reporting of results.

       “However, it could also indicate that the transmission rate is higher due to the new virus variant,” he said.

       Malaysia’s test positivity rate hovered around 8% to 9% for the week from July 12 to 18.

       This means for every 100 samples tested, eight to nine came back positive. WHO recommends that the test positivity rate should be 5% for two weeks before restrictions can be lifted.

       Dr Jamalludin said as long as the number of daily reported positive cases were still high, the infectivity rate (R-value) was likely to remain high.

       On Sunday, the reported Rt value in Malaysia was 1.15. This means every 100 infected persons will infect 115 others, leading to a growth in the number of Covid-19 patients.

       Although it is a drop from the 1.20 recorded last Thursday, the infectivity rate is still above 1.0, which means the virus will continue to spread.

       Dr Jamalludin said it was good that the government was shifting the focus towards the severity of the Covid-19 disease, especially with the vaccination programme being ramped up.

       “We should now focus on the rate of hospitalisation or death because it is tough to bring down the total number of positive cases with the new variants.

       “Since our vaccination rates are starting to pick up and with the Delta variant, we should look at symptomatic and severe cases.

       “However, the ‘category’ changes over time, so it’s also important to monitor the progress. We don’t want new cases classified as Category 1 but then they progress to Category 3 the next day,” he said.

       As such, the government should strengthen public education for home quarantine, though there might be those who need to be placed in a quarantine centre, he said, adding that small vaccination teams should also be the main workhorse of the inoculation programme rather than mega centres.

       “Even if we can’t shift everything now, it should be in the planning towards a more sustainable testing and vaccination process,” he said.

       Universiti Malaya professor of occupational and public health Prof Dr Victor Hoe said although the test positivity rate remained high, it had plateaued even with increased testing.

       “The high test positivity rate is due to the high number of cases in the community. WHO has suggested around 10 to 30 tests per confirmed case as a general benchmark of adequate testing.

       “The number of tests increased significantly from 2.16 per 1,000 population on June 26 to 3.78 per 1,000 population last Thursday.

       “The test positivity rate was 8% on June 26 and it has increased to 9.4% on July 8.

       “However, the test positivity rate hovered around 9.2% to 9.4% from July 8 to Sunday. The results show that the test positivity rate has plateaued even with the increased number of testing,” he said.

       He added Malaysians must not let their guard down as the transmissibility rate remained high.

       “The Rt is above 1.0 since June 27, and it has stayed between 1.2 and 1.3 over the past week.

       “Transmissibility is still high. We need to ensure that everyone follows the SOP,” Dr Hoe said.

       The Health Ministry said although a vast majority of the new Covid-19 cases were not serious, the small portion which require hospital admissions could still overwhelm the public healthcare system.

       Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said at least 98.5% of the new 10,972 cases reported yesterday were either mild or asymptomatic.

       However, he added that patients belonging to Categories 3, 4, and 5 had to be admitted to hospital, with the average stay in the ICU for a Category 4 patient being 14 days, while the average stay for a Category 5 patient is 21 days.

       “The long period of time needed (for patients to recover) leads to bed capacity crunch, which in turn, strains the ICU, hospitals, and low-risk quarantine and treatment centres,” he said.