REVIEW: The political theme in Malaysia’s investing landscape took control of the markets this past week as further uncertainty over the future of the ruling government sent investors packing.
Having fallen into a downtrend previously, the FBM KLCI was looking wobbly at the start of the week, struggling to find its footing below the 1,500-point psychological level.
But despite the sharp sell-off, investors held close to the support-turned resistance, suggesting that the negative breach was unconvincing. Despite an early sell-off on Monday, the FBM KLCI partially retraced its losses moving into the end of the day, closing 1.6 points lower at 1,493.
This suggested that market was coiled to rebound, pending a potential push in the right direction to send investors on a bargain hunt.
The upside pressure was more evident on Tuesday when an afternoon rally came into the market as investors picked up on oversold counters.
The FBM KLCI gained over seven points to end at the 1,500 level, returning some measure of hope that the resistance would be reclaimed.
By mid-week, however, political turmoil hit markets as Umno, the largest party ally of the Perikatan Nasional ruling coalition, pulled its support, putting Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s government in jeopardy.
Wednesday trading was predictably negative with a broad breadth of counters pulling back into the red. The FBM KLCI slumped 16.53 points to an intra-morning low pending further clarity.
At midday, the prime minister’s announcement that there would be a vote of no confidence in September indicated there was still time before any change of government, it it were to happen, would take place. The news helped to alleviate the immediate sentiment, leading the FBM KLCI on a partial retracement to close 8.93 points lower at 1,491.33.
Ushering along the decline was another record in new daily Covid-19 infections, which hit 19,918, casting further doubt over the efficacy of the ongoing lockdown.
The FBM KLCI was seen rallying on Thursday with investors determined to capitalise on the recent weakness. Ignoring yet another high in Covid-19 numbers as the daily tally surpassed 20,000 cases, at day’s end the FBM KLCI was up 4.45 points to 1,495.78.
The prime minister’s after-hours announcement that the standard operating procedures for the movement control order would be relaxed for those who had completed both doses of their vaccinations helped to shore up sentiment.
Yesterday, the FBM KLC slumped 5.98 points to 1,489.8, amid a lack of fresh catalysts and a cautious approach ahead of the weekend.
Statistics: The major index ended the week 4.8 points or 0.3% lower over the previous Friday at 1,489.8. Total turnover for the trading week stood at 20.23 billion shares amounting to RM12.58bil, compared with 21.44 billion shares worth RM13bil in the previous trading week.
Outlook: The FBM KLCI showed signs of consolidation below the 1,500-point level over the five days of trading. However, given the prevailing downtrend, the negative bias remained with selling pressure putting the index at risk of further declines.
Overhead, the descending 14 and 21-day simple moving averages continue to creep lower, as the short-term negative trend line stretched onward.
The technical indicators are weak with the slow-stochastic falling at 33 points and the relative strength index on the verge of crossing below the oversold line. The daily moving average convergence/divergence line also remains firmly entrenched in negative territory while momentum continues to fall.
Over the coming week, the market is expected to decline further although positive earnings results may shine a positive light on certain plays.
Resistance for the index remains at 1,500 and 1,535 while support is pegged to 1,475 and 1,450.