PETALING JAYA: International vegetable oils expert Thomas Mielke expects crude palm oil (CPO) to undergo a price correction of between 15% and 20% by the end of the year.
Mielke, who is executive director of ISTA Mielke GmBH (Oil World), said CPO price could weaken by end-December and will continue to see more weakness in the first half of 2022.
This is in view of the strong supply coming in 2021-2022 on the back of high oilseed plantings, demand rationing and a rebound in palm oil production, he said at a recent webinar hosted by UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) Research.
CPO is expected to be traded at US$1,000 (RM4,239) per tonne by end-2021 and to average at US$800-US$850 (RM3,392-RM3,604) per tonne in the first half of 2022.
Thomas Mielke (file pic): Increased plantings cause production surplus
“The record-high vegetable oil prices this year have boosted oilseed plantings and hence, the strong supply in 2021-2022 season.
“We expect a production surplus due to the increasing plantings in 2021-2022.
“This led to a forecast of the world production of 10 major oilseeds increasing by 34 million tonnes in 2021-2022, mostly soybeans,” Mielke added.
Furthermore, the higher vegetable oil prices have triggered demand rationing, primarily for food.
He pointed out that exports of vegetable oils have plummeted in recent months, bringing it to a three-year low.
Total world exports of eight vegetable oils declined to 72.41 million tonnes for October 2020-July 2021 compared with 74.84 million tonnes in the same corresponding period previously.
In addition, the world production of palm oil is likely to rebound by 2.1 million tonnes in 2020-2021, and by 3.8 million tonnes in 2021-2022, but low opening stocks will more than offset production growth.
Mielke also predicted that palm oil consumption will likely be squeezed for the second consecutive year, given the slowdown in demand from India and China.
On the flip side, Mielke said his view may change to one that is slightly positive should there be better-than-expected vegetable oil demand.
“Increasing demand for vegetable oils from the current low edible oil consumption/capita especially India, which experienced two consecutive years of low oil consumption could support the vegetable oil prices,” he added.
With the Covid-19 situation, Mielke noted that disruption in logistics would lead to higher freight cost.
“If the shortage of freight persists and gets worse, this could further delay the movement of crops to consuming markets.
“A few consuming countries are keeping very low inventories hoping for new crops to come and consequently to ease the prices.
“If the new crops could not come in on time due to logistics disruption, prices may continue to stay firm,” explained Mielke.
Another key factor is that should the La Nina weather phenomenon take place in November, it would affect the weather conditions across the palm-producing and soybean-producing countries.
“If this happens, it may curb the strong output of vegetable oils resulting in a limited supply situation,” he added.
Meanwhile, UOBKH Research has maintained its CPO price assumptions at RM3,300 per tonne for 2021 and RM2,800 per tonne for 2022 respectively.
The research firm is also maintaining an “underweight” on the plantation sector on assumption of weakening CPO prices and the environmental, social and governance concerns, which will lead to lower foreign fund interest in the sector, despite strong earnings ahead in the second and third quarter of 2021.