With 91 out of 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates contested by both major parties, there will be more races to watch in the commonwealth than there have been in more than 15 years. While the number of contests with both parties running is usually higher in years with gubernatorial elections than in “off-off-year” elections, this year’s numbers are particularly impressive.
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Parties usually try to balance running candidates in as many seats as possible, since not doing so guarantees a win for the opposing party, and focusing resources on races they think they can win.
For most of the 2000s so far, Republicans had an advantage contesting races in the House of Delegates. But that trend was reversed during the Trump years as Democrats fielded more candidates in the wave election of 2017 and again in 2019. That year, they took control of the House and won the Democratic trifecta that currently governs the state.
How Virginia went from blue to red and back again, in maps
This year, Democrats are contesting even more races than in 2017 or 2019, but Republicans are running candidates in a record 98 districts as they seek to regain the chamber they controlled for 20 years before losing it two years ago.
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Although the number of seats a party contests isn’t directly related to how well the party does in the election, there is a correlation between the number of seats a party contests relative to the other party, and how well it does in the House of Delegates election.
To be sure, when parties are poised to do well in an election, recruitment and fundraising become easier.
The fact that Democrats and Republicans are both contesting a record number of seats and neither party has a large advantage in the number they are contesting is another sign that this year’s competition for control of the House of Delegates will be particularly tight.