The Liberal Democrats believe they are “neck and neck” with the Tories in the run-up to the North Shropshire by-election, as Boris Johnson desperately tries to stave off defeat.
The constituency will vote on Thursday for a new MP to replace Owen Paterson, who resigned his seat after the scandal over his second job.
The party says it has knocked on 34,000 doors in the rural constituency and that internal canvassing returns show support for the Tories collapsing in the aftermath of sleaze allegations.
One Lib Dem source said the Downing Street party scandal had been like “manna from heaven” for the party’s campaigners, who are flooding into the seat from across the country to capitalise on the momentum.
The party has emerged as the main challenger in the seat, despite not having come second there since 2010.
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Bookies’ odds on a shock Lib Dem victory have steadily increased over the course of the campaign, with a sharp rise as the No 10 party scandal hit. They now sit at 4/5, close to the Tories.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey, who has already visited the constituency four times during the campaign, is making a fifth visit this weekend.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey on the campaign trail in North Shropshire with party activists
(Liberal Democrats)
Ahead of his latest visit, Mr Davey said: “Bungling Boris Johnson has become an embarrassment to the country and to the people of North Shropshire. The Downing Street party scandal is just the final straw after decades of neglect and taking local communities for granted.
“The momentum is now with the Liberal Democrats as we enter the final week of this campaign.
“Every day we are hearing from lifelong Conservative voters who are furious with the prime minister for lying, breaking the rules and trying to cover it up. They now have an opportunity to tell Boris Johnson that the party is over.”
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The Liberal Democrats previously pulled off a shock by-election upset in April when they defeated the Tory candidate in Chesham and Amersham, a constituency northwest of London.
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But the party is polling poorly nationally, struggling to rise above 10 per cent in the national polls.
A loss in North Shropshire would be a major blow for Boris Johnson following weeks of criticism over sleaze, the No 10 Christmas party, and cuts for northern rail projects.