The Liberal Democrats claim they are going to win the North Shropshire by-election from the Tories "comfortably", in what would be a major blow to Boris Johnson.
With the Conservatives appearing downbeat in what has been an ultra-safe seat for the party, the Lib Dems believed they were going to cruise to victory in the vote triggered by the resignation of Owen Paterson.
Lib DemHelen Morgan looks set to take the seat over Tory candidate Neil Shastri-Hurst.
The former minister had a near-23,000 majority at the 2019 general election when the Prime Minister won a landslide.
As counting was under way in the early hours of Friday, a Lib Dem spokesman said: "We're not just going to win, we're going to win comfortably.
"This is an amazing night for the Liberal Democrats and a disaster for Boris Johnson."
The turnout was 46.3 per cent, or 38,110 voters.
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If the Lib Dems were feeling confident when the polls closed on Thursday night, they have only grown in conviction as the count commenced.
Before the count was complete a Lib Dem spokesman told reporters "we're not just going to win, we're going to win comfortably".
They added: "This is an amazing night for the Liberal Democrats and a disaster for Boris Johnson."
Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Christine Jardine said Helen Morgan had run a "fantastic campaign against a Conservative party which has taken people in North Shropshire for granted".
"There is real anger at Boris Johnson’s Government which is completely out of touch with the country," Ms Jardine said.
“The Liberal Democrats are within touching distance of winning Blue Wall Conservative seats across the country at the next general election.
"If we get a strong result here tonight in a rural Conservative safe seat, it will send a shiver down Boris Johnson’s spine.”
Speaking at the by-election count venue in Shrewsbury, Liberal Democrat MP Christine Jardine said she was confident her party had won the seat "comfortably".
The Edinburgh West MP said: "I don't want to put a figure on it just now but we are just delighted that we've listened to the voters in North Shropshire and those voters are putting their confidence in us.
"People who are fed up, people who are tired and who are angry at the way this Government has behaved know now that they have an alternative.
"Conservative MPs right across those 'Blue Wall' seats will be looking over their shoulders.
"The Conservatives had a majority ... Owen Paterson had a majority of more than 20,000. We've turned that round tonight - turned it round comfortably. That's astonishing."
In Boris Johnson’s two years as prime minister never has an election mattered more than the North Shropshire by-election.
The Conservatives hold a 22,000 majority in the seat, which they have held for the best part of 200 years.
However, after months of crises ranging from the original sleaze story which caused the by-election to stories of Number Ten staff hosting Christmas parties whilst the country was in lockdown, the Tories face a real challenge to hold onto the seat.
To find out what voters in North Shropshire really care about Christopher Hope travelled to the constituency ahead of the by-election on Thursday. Watch the full film below.
Boris Johnson is watching nervously this morning as votes are counted in the North Shropshire by-election.
The Lib Dems are confident of winning what has been a safe seat for the Tories, one they have held for 188 of the past 190 years.
Defeat would be a disaster for the Prime Minister, whose authority has waned in recent weeks amid unrest over Christmas parties at No 10, and over his handling of the omicron variant.
The by-election was triggered after Owen Paterson resigned following the lobbying scandal in which Mr Johnson attempted to prevent the MP’s suspension from the Commons.
Results are due shortly and The Telegraph's Danielle Sheridan is at the count in Shrewsbury bringing you the latest news and reaction.
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