In this photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping tours the National Speed Skating Oval, a competition venue for the 2022 Winter Olympics, in Beijing on Jan. 4, 2022. (Shen Hong/Xinhua via AP)

       U.S. political risk research firm Eurasia Group led by American political scientist Ian Bremmer named China's "zero-COVID" policy and its inevitable failure the No. 1 concern among its "Top Risks" for 2022. The United States recently reported over 1 million daily coronavirus infections amid the rapid spread of the highly transmissible omicron variant. Eurasia Group's forecast expressed concerns that Beijing's policy of relying on made-in-China vaccines with a low efficacy will eventually fail and will consequently cause adverse effects on the world economy.

       At the end of 2021, the Chinese city of Xi'an in Shaanxi province saw a surge in infection numbers, and as a result, the city went into lockdown. The Chinese authorities are hard at work to maintain the zero-COVID policy ahead of the Beijing Olympics in February. Eurasia Group warns, however, that if a China-wide lockdown is implemented, it will deal a huge blow to supply chains and cause a global economic crisis.

       The risk, the group argues, lies in China's policymaking mechanism. Since President Xi Jinping has claimed the success of the zero-COVID policy as his own achievement, even if its failure becomes evident, it'll be difficult for Beijing to shift its course to one based on the premise of living with the virus, as adopted in the U.S. and many countries in Europe.

       This overlaps with the No. 4 risk named by the group: "China at home." Bremmer warns that Xi's campaign for common prosperity in the country will distort the market, while the absence of a checking system makes the country vulnerable to policy mistakes.

       Any government is prone to believe in "the myth of infallibility," but the tendency is stronger among authoritarian regimes like China. We are reminded of Chinese history in which Mao Zedong, who successfully expanded his authority through the cult of the individual, failed to correct mistakes in the economic and social campaign known as the Great Leap Forward, and in the Cultural Revolution.

       Will President Xi, who is expected to maintain his power beyond the customary two-term, 10-year limit at the 20th Party Congress scheduled for this autumn, fall into the same rut as Mao? A white paper released by Beijing in December 2021, titled "China: Democracy That Works," claimed that "the exercise of power has been brought under growing control and supervision," but it's questionable if that control and supervision extends to the country's supreme leader.

       The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claims that self-criticism and allowing intraparty critiques function as a system to correct its executives' actions when they go too far. Mao, too, had to face self-reflection after the failure of the Great Leap Forward became clear in anyone's eyes.

       Xi held a meeting of the CCP's Politburo at the end of 2021, during which participating party executives reportedly engaged in self- and mutual-criticism. However, it's unclear if Xi himself took part in the self-critique. Xinhua News Agency reports said the importance of protecting Xi's position as the party's core was confirmed. It is therefore highly likely that he served as an observer in the meeting.

       In the past there were cases in which party executives who were critical of Mao were ousted, and it's unlikely the current party environment is one where members can criticize Xi. All in all, it appears the concentration of power in Xi may be the biggest risk.

       (Japanese original by Kenji Bando, Expert Senior Writer)

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