Tory MPs are warning that Boris Johnson must not fight to stay prime minister if he is fined by police over Downing Street parties.
The news comes after exclusive polling for The Independent shows the party risks a brutal backlash from voters, with a record 75 per cent of voters thinking Johnson should go if he is found guilty of breaches.
Allies of Mr Johnson have briefed that he is ready to fight to hold onto his position even if served with a fixed penalty notice, which starts at ￡100 but could rise to ￡12,000 if he is found to have breached rules at all six of the events he is alleged to have attended.
But there were fears among MPs that this could rebound disastrously on the party in upcoming elections if voters feel he has dodged punishment.
The Savanta ComRes survey shows a record 75 per cent of voters think Johnson should go if he is found guilty of breaches in investigations by the Metropolitan Police and Whitehall mandarin Sue Gray, with just 16 per cent wanting him to stay in those circumstances.
Recommended Biden warns Putin of devastating costs of Ukrainian invasion, as Britons return Tory MP condemns Welsh Government over plans to keep self-isolation rules Boris Johnson ‘should recuse himself from choice of new police chief’
One Tory backbencher, speaking anonymously, told The Independent that the findings show clearly that the public are not ready to “forgive and forget” the flouting of coronavirus restrictions in Downing Street.
And veteran MP Sir Roger Gale said that the new polling makes clear Tories risk a backlash from voters if they support Mr Johnson’s efforts to hang on after a police fine.
“For the prime minister of the United Kingdom to be fined for breaking the law – and we are not talking about a parking ticket or something like that – and try to stay on would generate a public outcry,” said the Thanet North MP, who was the first to confirm he had submitted a letter of no confidence in Mr Johnson.
“His position, if it is not already untenable, will become completely untenable if he faces any kind of police sanction. If the parliamentary party then give him another 12 months in office by backing him in a confidence vote, I don’t think the voters will be best pleased.”
Though further confidence letters are unlikely to be submitted during next week’s recess while MPs are away from Westminster, exposure to constituents’ anger over Partygate may harden their resolve to bring the matter to a head before May’s local elections.
Pressure on the PM has mounted after Tory predecessor Sir John Major said his actions had “shredded” the UK’s reputation overseas.
Mr Johnson has sought to draw a line under the scandal with a shake-up of top personnel at 10 Downing Street, and is understood to have lined up a private lawyer to help him defend his actions if he is questioned as a suspect by police.
The prime minister is believed to be among around 50 individuals linked to Downing Street who have been sent police questionnaires about their involvement.
Outgoing Met commissioner Cressida Dick has said it is clear that “some but probably not all” will receive fines.
UK news in pictures Show all 50
1/50UK news in pictures
UK news in pictures 12 February 2022 People in Parliament Square, London, take part in the People's Assembly nationwide protest about cost of living crisis
PA
UK news in pictures 11 February 2022 Romney sheep graze the grass around the dormant vines at Nyetimber's Manor Vineyard at West Chiltington in West Sussex. The herd from a local farm form part of Nyetimber's sustainability program and are utilised for vineyard maintenance, keeping the grass low, reducing the risk of frost, maintaining grass leys on the estate and saving the cost of fuel for mowing
PA
UK news in pictures 10 February 2022 Alice Wyllie looks at projections featuring details of some of the illustration plates during the press view for Audubon's Birds of America exhibition at the National Museum Of Scotland, Edinburgh
PA
UK news in pictures 9 February 2022 New arrival Upendi and mother Cheka in the bonobo enclosure at Twycross Zoo, Leicestershire
PA
UK news in pictures 8 February 2022 Workers move a crate containing Season's Greetings by street artist Banksy from a retail unit at Ty'r Orsaf, Port Talbot, prior to its journey to a temporary storage unit at an undisclosed location
PA
UK news in pictures 7 February 2022 Dog walkers enjoy the early morning sunrise at Tynemouth Beach in North Tyneside, on the north east coast of England
PA
UK news in pictures 6 February 2022 A Leicester City invades the pitch as Nottingham Forest celebrate scoring their side’s third goal of the game during the Emirates FA Cup fourth round match at the City Ground, Nottingham
PA
UK news in pictures 5 February 2022 Stadium staff remove a flare from the pitch during the Emirates FA Cup fourth round match at Selhurst Park
PA
UK news in pictures 4 February 2022 "The Nuba Survival" is a five-metre-tall statue of two skeletons locked in an embrace in Checkendon, Oxfordshire. The statue was created by local artist John Buckley
PA
UK news in pictures 3 February 2022 Kew horticulturists attending to the ‘Rising sun’ display at the Kew Orchid Festival: Costa Rica, at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew, west London
PA
UK news in pictures 2 February 2022 Protesters campaign against corruption in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 1 February 2022 Lorries queue for the Port of Dover in Kent, as the Dover TAP is enforced due to the high volume of lorries waiting to cross the Channel
PA
UK news in pictures 31 January 2022 Nelson Beaumont-Laurencia applies finishing touches to a sculpture of a tiger, commissioned by Manchester Business Improvement District to celebrate the Chinese New Year, is unveiled in St Ann’s Square
PA
UK news in pictures 30 January 2022 A house on Overhill terrace in Gateshead, lost its roof on 29 January after strong winds from Storm Malik battered northern parts of the UK
PA
UK news in pictures 29 January 2022 A newly painted bicycle sign is seen on the middle of the road at Westminster Bridge, as the new Highway Code rules start today together with giving pedestrians priority at junctions
Reuters
UK news in pictures 28 January 2022 School children take part in a rally in support of British Sign Language becoming a recognised language in the UK, outside the Houses of Parliament, Westminster, as the British Sign Language Private Members’ Bill, introduced by Rosie Cooper MP, reaches its second reading in the House
PA
UK news in pictures 27 January 2022 A rare six-week-old southern white rhino calf called Zawadi, explores her paddock for the first time at Africa Alive! in Lowestoft
PA
UK news in pictures 26 January 2022 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson jogs with his dog Dilyn, in London
REUTERS
UK news in pictures 25 January 2022 A member of staff looks at Francis Bacon’s work ‘Second Version of Triptych 1944’ on display in the Francis Bacon: Man and Beast exhibition at the the Royal Academy of Arts in London
PA
UK news in pictures 24 January 2022 Rowers (front to back) Charlotte Irving, Kat Cordiner and Abby Johnston, on their way to shatter the world record for rowing across the Atlantic
PA
UK news in pictures 23 January 2022 A grey seal pup on the beach at Horsey Gap in Norfolk, as the pupping season draws to a close at one of the UK’s most important sites for the mammals
PA
UK news in pictures 22 January 2022 Participants prepare to take part in the Crisis icebreaker cold water challenge at Tooting Bec Lido in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 21 January 2022 Willesborough Windmill, a white smock mill built in 1869 is bathed in the morning sunshine as the moon sets behind in Ashford, Kent
PA
UK news in pictures 20 January 2022 A jet skier jumps the waves off the coast at Blyth in Northumberland
PA
UK news in pictures 19 January 2022 Britain’s Prince William and Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge, participate in a therapy session with individuals who have experienced the care system, during a visit to the Foundling Museum in London
REUTERS
UK news in pictures 18 January 2022 Surfers enter the sea as the sun rises over Tynemouth on the North East coast
PA
UK news in pictures 17 January 2022 Bonhams’ Danny McIlwraith holds a Nigerian polycrome carved wood mask during a photocall for the sale of the Jim Lennon Collection at Bonhams in Edinburgh
PA
UK news in pictures 16 January 2022 The moon rises above the Spinnaker Tower in Portsmouth, Hampshire
PA
UK news in pictures 15 January 2022 Demonstrators outside Downing Street during a ‘Kill The Bill’ protest against The Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill in London
PA
UK news in pictures 14 January 2022 Ecologist Emma Smart (left) and retired GP Dr Diana Warner outside HMP Bronzefield, in Surrey, following their release from the prison where Emma undertook a 26-day hunger strike during her incarceration. Ms Smart was sentenced in November, along with other members of Insulate Britain, to serve four months for breaking a High Court injunction by taking part in a blockade at junction 25 of the M25 motorway during the morning rush hour on 8 October last year
PA
UK news in pictures 13 January 2022 A TV presenter holds a copy of a newspaper outside 10 Downing Streetafter the Prime Minister apologised for attending a gathering of colleagues in the Number Ten garden in May 2020, while the UK was in strict lockdown due to the Coronavirus pandemic
Getty
UK news in pictures 12 January 2022 Fitness guru Derrick Evans after receiving an MBE during an investiture ceremony at Windsor Castle
PA
UK news in pictures 11 January 2022 A couple walk underneath an umbrella during wet weather on Westminster Bridge in central London
PA
UK news in pictures 10 January 2022 A jogger passes the Covid Memorial Wall in London
AP
UK news in pictures 9 January 2021 The sun rises over horses at Seaton Sluice in Northumberland
PA
UK news in pictures 8 January 2022 Riders compete during the Veterans Men's race at the UK Cyclo-Cross National Championships 2022 in Ardingly, south of London
AFP/Getty
UK news in pictures 7 January 2022 A dog looks out of a car window at the wintry conditions in Killeshin, Co. Laois
PA
UK news in pictures 6 January 2022 People walk through frost and mist alongside a frozen lake during sunrise in Bushy Park, London
REUTERS
UK news in pictures 5 January 2022 A skier jumps on the slopes at Allenheads in the Pennines to the north of Weardale in Northumberland
PA
UK news in pictures 4 January 2022 Freshly-fallen snow covers houses in Corbridge, near Hexham in Northumberland
PA
UK news in pictures 3 January 2022 Dean Morrison, 13, receives his Covid-19 vaccine from student nurse Anthony McLaughlin during a vaccination clinic at the Glasgow Central Mosque
PA
UK news in pictures 2 January 2022 Konastantinos Tsimikas of Liverpool with Chelsea’s Mason Mount during the Premier League match at Stamfrod Bridge
Liverpool FC/Getty
UK news in pictures 1 January 2022 New Year’s Eve Lasers, drones and fireworks illuminate the sky in front of the Royal Naval College in Greenwich shortly after midnight in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 31 December 2021 Competitors in fancy dress run across the Pennine tops near Haworth, West Yorkshire, in the annual Auld Lang Syne Fell race which attracts hundreds of runners every year
PA
UK news in pictures 30 December 2021 Sunrise at Bamburgh Castle in Northumberland
PA
UK news in pictures 29 December 2021 The Very Revd Dr Robert Willis, Dean of Canterbury Cathedral, looks at Becket, a six month old red-billed chough as he visits Wildwood Wildlife Park in Kent on the anniversary of the murder of Thomas Becket
PA
UK news in pictures 28 December 2021 Troops of the Household Cavalry are seen reflected in a puddle during the changing of the Queen’s Life Guard, on Horse Guards Parade, in central London
PA
UK news in pictures 27 December 2021 A pedestrian walks past a winter sale sign outside a John Lewis store on Oxford street in London
Getty
UK news in pictures 26 December 2021 Riders take their bikes through the snow near Castleside, County Durham
PA
UK news in pictures 25 December 2021 Patrick Corkery wears a santa hat and beard as waves crash over him at Forty Foot near Dublin during a Christmas Day dip
PA
Today’s poll of 2,232 voters found that 49 per cent believe Mr Johnson should resign no matter what the result of the police investigation and Ms Gray’s probe, with a further 26 per cent who say he should go if found guilty and 16 per cent who want him to stay regardless of the outcome.
But crucially, a majority of Conservative supporters – unlike those from other parties – are willing to see him stay on if he is cleared of personal breaches.
Some 32 per cent of people who voted Tory in 2019 said he should resign now, but 30 per cent want him to go only if proved to have broken the rules, and 31 per cent to remain in office even if he is fined.
Among those who want the PM to resign, Partygate was the most-cited reason – mentioned by 83 per cent – followed by his perceived dishonesty (79 per cent) and his personal behaviour (77 per cent). For Conservative supporters who want him out, Mr Johnson’s lies were seen as a stronger justification for his removal than the lockdown breaches.
One Tory backbencher said the findings reflected the hostility towards the PM from constituents being felt by MPs.
“This poll will only confirm what I presume most MPs are seeing in their inboxes,” the MP told The Independent.
“It deserves long consideration over the recess week by those who have been reluctant so far to hand in their letters of no confidence. It is clear to me that the public are not going to forgive and forget, no matter what Johnson and those around him in No 10 might think.”
The chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, must call a vote on Mr Johnson’s leadership if he receives 54 letters from MPs. Ten are known to have been sent, but the total number is believed to be significantly higher.
The poll casts doubt on whether the prime minister’s flagship “levelling up” agenda will be enough to turn his fortunes around, with almost half (46 per cent) saying it will make no difference to their living standards and 23 per cent saying it will worsen them, against just 23 per cent who think it will make things better.
Alarmingly for the PM – who has staked a lot of political capital on his ability to attract support in former Labour strongholds by redirecting investment away from London – belief in the potential of “levelling up” is strongest in the capital (36 per cent) and far lower in areas like the northwest (17 per cent), Yorkshire and the Humber (21 per cent) and West Midlands (23 per cent).
The Savanta poll shows that, from being a major electoral asset in 2019, Mr Johnson has become a significant drag on Tory support, with 45 per cent of those questioned saying they are less likely to vote Conservative if he stays.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak is the most favoured candidate to replace him among both Tory supporters and the electorate at large, with 29 per cent of voters and 43 per cent of Conservatives saying they would be more likely to back the party with him at the helm.
Some distance behind the chancellor is health secretary Sajid Javid, followed by former leadership contender Jeremy Hunt and foreign secretary Liz Truss.
Savanta ComRes associate director Chris Hopkins said: “Most polling has shown for a long time that voters have felt Boris Johnson should resign over Partygate.
“If the Met Police investigation finds him guilty of breaching Covid regulations, this poll suggests that calls for him to go are likely to only intensify.
“While the PM continues to insist that voters want him to get on with the job, a looming cost of living crisis and the potential for conflict in eastern Europe does not give Johnson much respite before the Met investigation concludes, and therefore he’ll need a gargantuan effort to increase his popularity before a verdict which could signal the end for his premiership.”
The Savanta survey drives home the daunting economic and political terrain which any new leader would inherit, in a time of rising prices, tax hikes and squeezed incomes.
Recommended Boris Johnson will be invited to address Scottish Tory conference Guto Harri has to get a grip on Boris Johnson and Downing Street | Sean O’Grady With UK nationals told to flee Ukraine, what is behind the tensions with Russia?
Some 41 per cent of those questioned said they expect their own financial situation to get worse – including 20 per cent who said it will get significantly worse – over the coming period.
Most pessimistic about their financial prospects were the over-55s, among whom half (50 per cent) expect to have to tighten their belts, against just 11 per cent who expect to see their bank balance get healthier, and those in the lowest DE social category, where 48 per cent expect tougher times and 12 per cent improvements.