Boris Johnson loyalists believe he is lining up a revenge reshuffle in July if he escapes unscathed from the Partygate inquiries and May’s perilous local elections.
Emboldened by the delay in publishing the final report into alleged lockdown-breaking gatherings at No 10, supporters of the prime minister believe the wind has gone out of the sails of moves to oust him, and that he will survive a confidence vote by MPs even if he is fined by the police.
One well-placed MP predicted that, if so, he would move against those he feels have undermined him. They told The Independent: “Boris is someone who rewards loyalty, and there are a lot of people who very noticeably failed to show it.”
There was little to nurture loyalist hopes of a Johnson recovery in an exclusive Savanta Comres survey for The Independent, which showed Conservatives trailing the opposition on 33 per cent compared to Labour’s 40 – a single point up on the low of 32 recorded in the pollster’s political tracker index.
Little more than a third (35 per cent) of Conservative supporters viewed the prime minister as their top choice for leader.
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A massive 63 per cent of voters said Mr Johnson was doing a “bad job” as PM, against just 31 per cent who said he was doing well. Even among Tory voters, 42 per cent said he was performing badly.
But the poll confirmed a belief among his supporters that the PM will be protected from removal by the lack of an obvious replacement for opponents to rally around.
Among Tory supporters, he remained well ahead of his nearest rival, Rishi Sunak, who was favoured as leader by 23 per cent, with much-touted alternatives Liz Truss (4 per cent), Jeremy Hunt (7 per cent) and Sajid Javid (4 per cent) all trailing “someone else” (20 per cent) as the first choice.
Among voters in general, Mr Johnson on 18 per cent was almost neck and neck with Mr Sunak (17 per cent), with Ms Truss (4 per cent), Mr Hunt (7 per cent) and Mr Javid (6 per cent) again far behind.
Johnson loyalists who spoke to The Independent accepted that their leader still faces a challenge to hold onto his job, particularly if he is handed a police fine, is found personally culpable in the Partygate report by senior civil servant Sue Gray, or the Tories suffer a drubbing at the local elections on 5 May.
But one Tory MP said that even if one of these moments of peril does result in Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, receiving the 54 letters needed to trigger a vote on Mr Johnson’s leadership, there is growing confidence that the prime minister can win it – as did his predecessor, Theresa May – by securing the votes of more than half of the parliamentary party, which at present equates to 181 of the party’s 360 MPs.
“It’s a very high bar to reach, and it would take a greater degree of organisation than the rebels have shown so far,” they said.
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And the May polls could be a blessing in disguise for the PM, as they involve seats – particularly in London – that were last fought at the high point of Jeremy Corbyn’s electoral fortunes in 2018, meaning that Labour will face a tough challenge if it hopes to make significant gains.
“We’ll certainly take a hit in May,” said the MP. “But actually we may not lose that many seats in numerical terms because we’re starting from a fairly low base. [Mr Johnson] can take a few hundred losses without it being terminal, especially if he’s just won a confidence vote.”
And they added: “If he gets through both of those, I think we can expect a reshuffle, and it won’t be kind to those who failed to step up when he was under threat.
“Boris is someone who rewards loyalty. There are a lot of people who very noticeably failed to show loyalty when the stories about parties were appearing. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] and Nadine [Dorries] and some others were out there [in TV and radio interviews] again and again, but there were others at ministerial and PPS level who were notable by their absence. I think some of them will be regretting their decisions come July.”
The MP declined to identify potential victims of a revenge reshuffle.
Mr Sunak and Ms Truss have both been accused of being “on manoeuvres” – of courting support in case of an eventual leadership battle – and Mr Sunak’s disavowal of the PM’s smear linking Sir Keir Starmer with Jimmy Savile was regarded by some as disloyal. But few in Westminster believe the PM would move against the pair, who are seen as being among his more successful ministers.
Despite polling evidence of deep voter anger over the Downing Street parties – including in a recent survey for The Independent, which found that 75 per cent think the prime minister should quit if he is fined – some supporters believe Mr Johnson could survive being given a fixed penalty notice by the police.
One cabinet minister told The Independent: “The parties certainly come up on the doorstep. There’s no doubt people are cross about them. But it isn’t changing the way they say they’ll vote. As far as my constituents are concerned, he delivered Brexit and he delivered the vaccine, and that’s good enough for them.”
The minister added: “I personally don’t think he’ll get fined. There is a high bar for the cops. Even if he does, I think he can ride it out. The Tory mood in the house was completely different after the Covid statement.”
With the final Covid restrictions lifted and tensions over Ukraine dominating the political agenda, Johnson supporters are increasingly doubtful that rebels can revive the momentum that earlier saw confidence letters in double figures sent to Sir Graham.
MPs who spoke out against Johnson’s leadership came from different groups – red wall newcomers anxious for their slim majorities in former Labour seats, veteran Tories with One Nation sympathies, and former ministers chafing at being confined to the back benches – with no organised plot to unite them, they said.
Meanwhile, the “Operation Save Big Dog” alternative whipping system has been so successful that activity on its WhatsApp support group has dwindled because members feel it is “job done”.
One MP said the furore had helped the PM establish a corps of firm supporters: “There wasn’t really a Johnsonite group before all this, but funnily enough, the Partygate affair has created one.”
Today’s poll showed Sir Keir having some success eating into the Tory vote, with 13 per cent of 2019 Conservatives now saying they would back Labour, against just 1 per cent who voted Labour at the last election moving in the opposite direction.
But 45 per cent said Sir Keir was doing a bad job as leader of the opposition, against 35 per cent who said he was doing well.
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Mr Sunak won a positive rating for his performance as chancellor, with 46 per cent saying he has done well, against 39 per cent who rated him badly. And views on Mr Javid’s performance as health secretary were evenly split at 41-41.
Savanta ComRes questioned 2,201 British adults between 18 and 20 February.