KOTA KINABALU: Less than 15,000ha of forest were restored over a span of 30 years in one of the largest restoration projects in South-East Asia, raising further questions on the ability of the controversial Nature Conservation Agreement (NCA) to deliver its legal minimum target of monetising 50,000ha in just two years.

       Environmental experts said there were major technical and logistic impediments to restoration on this scale, with the largest area ever restored in a single year by Yayasan Sabah's substantial INFAPRO project only hitting about 2,000ha.

       In a joint statement, University of Aberdeen's Prof David Burslem and South-East Asia Rainforest Research Partnership (SEARRP) director Datuk Dr Glen Reynolds, said they were unaware of any project operating in the tropics that had restored forest at the rate envisaged under the NCA.

       "Restoration on this scale in mostly remote locations would be extremely challenging.

       "It would involve the sourcing and production of over 10 million tree seedlings, extensive site-species matching assessments and road construction to secure access for planting.

       "It will also require long-term seedling maintenance in the remote planting sites and a comprehensive post-planting monitoring programme," they said.

       Burslem had conducted numerous research projects in Sabah, often in partnership with the Sabah Forestry Department and Yayasan Sabah, since the mid-1990s, and his work included a 20-year Danum Valley-based study on carbon recovery rates in logged-over and restored rainforests.

       Reynolds, meanwhile, had worked in the state for over two decades and has a PhD in forest restoration from Imperial College.

       Through SEARRP, he had led and collaborated on many climate changes, carbon financing and forest recovery research programmes in Sabah and the wider region.

       Citing a report titled "Technical and financial impediments to the viability of the Nature Conservation Agreement," they also said the cost of restoring tropical forests was highly variable, ranging from a few hundred US dollars to tens of thousands of US dollars per hectare, depending on the type and level of degradation and extent of restoration required.

       They said assuming restoration under the NCA would mainly involve enrichment planting of tree seedlings in previously logged-over forest, similar to what was carried out by INFAPRO, restoration costs could exceed RM10,000 per hectare over a period of five years.

       "The cost of restoring 50,000 ha during the initial phase of the NCA could amount to well over RM500 million," they said, adding that - under the terms of the NCA - these costs would have to be borne by the Sabah government in order to generate possible carbon sales.

       In addition, carbon recovery rates can be highly variable, and even in the fastest recovering zones of the INFAPRO area, and when accounting for growth rates over a 30-year period, a carbon price of at least RM60 per tonne would be necessary to achieve break-even with respect to restoration costs - a price much higher than current market rates.

       The figures currently being promoted for the NCA were about 10 times the real market price for this kind of carbon and may approach five times the amount of carbon sequestered per year per hectare that scientifically demonstrated, the authors warn.

       "This is why the many carbon projects around the world are nowhere making the billions being claimed as possible for Sabah."

       Burslem and Reynolds also cautioned that even if the NCA delivered on its restoration targets, the project would unlikely be certifiable to any internationally recognised standard.

       Reynolds explained that, "the NCA states that it will operate exclusively in existing protected areas in Sabah - the establishment of which had nothing to do with the NCA.

       "Sabah's protected forests generally have very high carbon stocks and, given existing obligations to conserve and restore these areas, the NCA may not be able to demonstrate that it will generate any 'additional' and therefore saleable carbon.

       "Forest-based carbon projects, such as the NCA, must be able to show additionality- that the project activities are directly responsible for storing carbon.

       "It's not clear to me how the NCA would be able to do this - and if it can't, then the project won't be certifiable and won't generate carbon sales," Reynolds said.

       The controversial agreement, signed in October 2021, would grant monopoly rights to a Singapore company, Hoch Standard Pte Ltd, for the carbon credit sales from state forests covering up to two million hectares.