Vladimir Putin’s control of the Russian regime may prove brittle if his assault on Ukraine is not rewarded with swift success, Western officials believe.
While the Russian president made a display of his authority in a meeting of his Security Council at the Kremlin on Tuesday, intelligence suggests that elements within the Moscow establishment believe his military strike to be a mistake which could destabilise his 20-year rule.
The inner core of Putin’s administration are understood to expect that Russian troops will be welcomed by significant portions of the Ukrainian population, a belief which Western officials regard as a severe misjudgement.
Western officials said it was clear that Mr Putin was intent on securing control over a large section of Ukrainian territory and that he was also expected to try to seize capital Kyiv to install a pro-Moscow puppet government.
Faced with an attack on many fronts, Ukrainian forces face a challenging task to resist the significantly larger Russian military, much of it war-hardened from service in Syria, Crimea and Georgia.
Recommended Vladimir Putin launches Russia-Ukraine war - follow live What are the issues between Ukraine and Russia? The crisis explained
Early missile strikes were targeted at Ukraine’s air defence system in a bid to secure Russian dominance of the skies to provide devastating support for ground forces.
But there are indications of Ukrainians mounting a defence against the onslaught, with at least one Russian aircraft believed to have been shot down this morning.
An eventual assault on Kyiv may come up against stiff resistance, potentially requiring protracted and bloody street-fighting to subdue, Western officials believe.
This map shows major cities in Ukraine as well as Moscow-backed separatist regions. As of early this week, rebels held only parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions highlighted
(The Independent)
The history of Russia’s brutal approach to urban warfare in Chechnya – where much of capital Grozny was levelled to the ground – is prompting fears in Western capitals of significant civilian casualties in a no-holds-barred assault on the city of 3m people.
And there are concerns of a refugee crisis as Ukrainians flee the capital as well as other areas menaced by Russian forces.
Western officials said that this morning’s attack saw a combination of precision missile strikes and air strikes followed by an unknown numbers of Russian troops entering Ukrainian territory from Belarus to the north, Russia to the east and occupied Crimea to the south.
Special operations forces are believed to have moved into Ukraine in advance of the conventional forces in order to soften up opposition before the main assault.
UK news in pictures Show all 50
1/50UK news in pictures
UK news in pictures 24 February 2022 People protest against the Russian invasion on Ukraine outside Downing Street in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 23 February 2022 Swimmers from Hampstead Ponds cross the road in their swimming costumes outside the Royal Courts of Justice, London, as they await the result of a judicial review brought by Christina Efthimiou over whether the charges for bathing at the ponds in Hampstead Heath unlawfully discriminate against disabled people
PA
UK news in pictures 22 February 2022 Runners line up for the start of The Anshin Security Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at Taunton Racecourse
Getty
UK news in pictures 21 February 2022 Shoes on display at the ROKER AW22 presentation at London Fashion Week, in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 20 February 2022 The waters of the River Severn in edge towards homes in Ironbridge, Shropshire, as more wet and windy weather is set to sweep the UK. Storm Franklin is set to strike the UK just days after Storm Eunice destroyed buildings and left 1.4 million homes without power
PA
UK news in pictures 19 February 2022 Damaged caused to home of Dominic Good, in Stondon Massey, near Brentwood, Essex, after a 400-year-old oak tree in his garden was uprooted by Storm Eunice.
PA
UK news in pictures 17 February 2021 Activists from the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) protest against the use of feathers in clothing, ahead of London Fashion Week
Reuters
UK news in pictures 16 February 2022 Waves crashing on the seafront at Blackpool before Storm Dudley hits the north of England
PA
UK news in pictures 15 February 2022 Hailey Duff, left, Vicky Wright, centre and Jennifer Dodds in action for Great Britsin during their women’s curling round robin match against Japan at the Beijing Winter Olympics. Team GB sealed a 10-4 victory
Reuters
UK news in pictures 14 February 2022 Members of the Household Cavalry walk past Wellington Arch and a large inflatable heart, on Valentine's Day in London
Reuters
UK news in pictures 13 February 2022 People in costume attend the Whitby Steampunk Weekend in Yorkshire
PA
UK news in pictures 12 February 2022 People in Parliament Square, London, take part in the People's Assembly nationwide protest about cost of living crisis
PA
UK news in pictures 11 February 2022 Romney sheep graze the grass around the dormant vines at Nyetimber's Manor Vineyard at West Chiltington in West Sussex. The herd from a local farm form part of Nyetimber's sustainability program and are utilised for vineyard maintenance, keeping the grass low, reducing the risk of frost, maintaining grass leys on the estate and saving the cost of fuel for mowing
PA
UK news in pictures 10 February 2022 Alice Wyllie looks at projections featuring details of some of the illustration plates during the press view for Audubon's Birds of America exhibition at the National Museum Of Scotland, Edinburgh
PA
UK news in pictures 9 February 2022 New arrival Upendi and mother Cheka in the bonobo enclosure at Twycross Zoo, Leicestershire
PA
UK news in pictures 8 February 2022 Workers move a crate containing Season's Greetings by street artist Banksy from a retail unit at Ty'r Orsaf, Port Talbot, prior to its journey to a temporary storage unit at an undisclosed location
PA
UK news in pictures 7 February 2022 Dog walkers enjoy the early morning sunrise at Tynemouth Beach in North Tyneside, on the north east coast of England
PA
UK news in pictures 6 February 2022 A Leicester City invades the pitch as Nottingham Forest celebrate scoring their side’s third goal of the game during the Emirates FA Cup fourth round match at the City Ground, Nottingham
PA
UK news in pictures 5 February 2022 Stadium staff remove a flare from the pitch during the Emirates FA Cup fourth round match at Selhurst Park
PA
UK news in pictures 4 February 2022 "The Nuba Survival" is a five-metre-tall statue of two skeletons locked in an embrace in Checkendon, Oxfordshire. The statue was created by local artist John Buckley
PA
UK news in pictures 3 February 2022 Kew horticulturists attending to the ‘Rising sun’ display at the Kew Orchid Festival: Costa Rica, at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew, west London
PA
UK news in pictures 2 February 2022 Protesters campaign against corruption in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 1 February 2022 Lorries queue for the Port of Dover in Kent, as the Dover TAP is enforced due to the high volume of lorries waiting to cross the Channel
PA
UK news in pictures 31 January 2022 Nelson Beaumont-Laurencia applies finishing touches to a sculpture of a tiger, commissioned by Manchester Business Improvement District to celebrate the Chinese New Year, is unveiled in St Ann’s Square
PA
UK news in pictures 30 January 2022 A house on Overhill terrace in Gateshead, lost its roof on 29 January after strong winds from Storm Malik battered northern parts of the UK
PA
UK news in pictures 29 January 2022 A newly painted bicycle sign is seen on the middle of the road at Westminster Bridge, as the new Highway Code rules start today together with giving pedestrians priority at junctions
Reuters
UK news in pictures 28 January 2022 School children take part in a rally in support of British Sign Language becoming a recognised language in the UK, outside the Houses of Parliament, Westminster, as the British Sign Language Private Members’ Bill, introduced by Rosie Cooper MP, reaches its second reading in the House
PA
UK news in pictures 27 January 2022 A rare six-week-old southern white rhino calf called Zawadi, explores her paddock for the first time at Africa Alive! in Lowestoft
PA
UK news in pictures 26 January 2022 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson jogs with his dog Dilyn, in London
REUTERS
UK news in pictures 25 January 2022 A member of staff looks at Francis Bacon’s work ‘Second Version of Triptych 1944’ on display in the Francis Bacon: Man and Beast exhibition at the the Royal Academy of Arts in London
PA
UK news in pictures 24 January 2022 Rowers (front to back) Charlotte Irving, Kat Cordiner and Abby Johnston, on their way to shatter the world record for rowing across the Atlantic
PA
UK news in pictures 23 January 2022 A grey seal pup on the beach at Horsey Gap in Norfolk, as the pupping season draws to a close at one of the UK’s most important sites for the mammals
PA
UK news in pictures 22 January 2022 Participants prepare to take part in the Crisis icebreaker cold water challenge at Tooting Bec Lido in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 21 January 2022 Willesborough Windmill, a white smock mill built in 1869 is bathed in the morning sunshine as the moon sets behind in Ashford, Kent
PA
UK news in pictures 20 January 2022 A jet skier jumps the waves off the coast at Blyth in Northumberland
PA
UK news in pictures 19 January 2022 Britain’s Prince William and Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge, participate in a therapy session with individuals who have experienced the care system, during a visit to the Foundling Museum in London
REUTERS
UK news in pictures 18 January 2022 Surfers enter the sea as the sun rises over Tynemouth on the North East coast
PA
UK news in pictures 17 January 2022 Bonhams’ Danny McIlwraith holds a Nigerian polycrome carved wood mask during a photocall for the sale of the Jim Lennon Collection at Bonhams in Edinburgh
PA
UK news in pictures 16 January 2022 The moon rises above the Spinnaker Tower in Portsmouth, Hampshire
PA
UK news in pictures 15 January 2022 Demonstrators outside Downing Street during a ‘Kill The Bill’ protest against The Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill in London
PA
UK news in pictures 14 January 2022 Ecologist Emma Smart (left) and retired GP Dr Diana Warner outside HMP Bronzefield, in Surrey, following their release from the prison where Emma undertook a 26-day hunger strike during her incarceration. Ms Smart was sentenced in November, along with other members of Insulate Britain, to serve four months for breaking a High Court injunction by taking part in a blockade at junction 25 of the M25 motorway during the morning rush hour on 8 October last year
PA
UK news in pictures 13 January 2022 A TV presenter holds a copy of a newspaper outside 10 Downing Streetafter the Prime Minister apologised for attending a gathering of colleagues in the Number Ten garden in May 2020, while the UK was in strict lockdown due to the Coronavirus pandemic
Getty
UK news in pictures 12 January 2022 Fitness guru Derrick Evans after receiving an MBE during an investiture ceremony at Windsor Castle
PA
UK news in pictures 11 January 2022 A couple walk underneath an umbrella during wet weather on Westminster Bridge in central London
PA
UK news in pictures 10 January 2022 A jogger passes the Covid Memorial Wall in London
AP
UK news in pictures 9 January 2021 The sun rises over horses at Seaton Sluice in Northumberland
PA
UK news in pictures 8 January 2022 Riders compete during the Veterans Men's race at the UK Cyclo-Cross National Championships 2022 in Ardingly, south of London
AFP/Getty
UK news in pictures 7 January 2022 A dog looks out of a car window at the wintry conditions in Killeshin, Co. Laois
PA
UK news in pictures 6 January 2022 People walk through frost and mist alongside a frozen lake during sunrise in Bushy Park, London
REUTERS
UK news in pictures 5 January 2022 A skier jumps on the slopes at Allenheads in the Pennines to the north of Weardale in Northumberland
PA
And cyber attacks on Ukrainian financial institutions and government departments late last night are also thought to have been directed from Moscow.
The vast scale of the 200,000-strong force assembled by Putin in the region means it could be a matter of days before the full military strike is deployed.
Recommended Boris Johnson imposes new sanctions on over 100 Russian oligarchs and entities Why has Putin decided to invade Ukraine now? Everything you need to know EXPLAINER: Why Putin uses WWII to justify attacks in Ukraine
It remains unclear whether Putin’s goal is to seize the entire 230,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory, or to focus on strategic priorities such as the Donbass region and the Black Sea ports of Mariupol and Odessa or to establish a “land bridge” between Crimea and Russian territory.