KUALA LUMPUR: Analysts have mixed views on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Asean economies and currencies.
CGS-CIMB said Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand, seemed to have experienced limited impact during times of global conflict.
“We notice negative impact on stock prices at the onset of the crisis, but no significant implications on the stock market in the longer run,” the brokerage said in a note.
As for currencies, it said the US dollar index mostly fell during a crisis, which meant regional currencies tended to gain.
“However, this varied depending on the type of conflict and the country. In addition, some currency appreciations were also short-lived,” it added.
On the US interest rate, CGS-CIMB said concerns over high inflation coupled with the country’s current economic strength may lead the US Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish tone.
Meanwhile, PublicInvest Research said a full-blown Russia-Ukraine conflict could hurt the economies of emerging markets, given expected volatilities and further spike in oil prices.
“Jittery sentiment could push investors to seek a flight to safety – an upside bias for safe haven assets, particularly the US dollar,” the research house said. — Bernama